My previous article: November may see as many as 4.2 to 4.5 million cases of Covid-19 correctly predicted the number of Covid-19 cases in November, 2020. The exact reported case total, according to Worldometers, was 4,521,787 cases. That’s just slightly higher than my high prediction, which was based on the first several days of November. Here’s what I said:
“If this rate stays flat, November will see 3,662,070 cases and 31,937 deaths. But if the rise in cases continues, as it has been rising over more than the last month and longer, then November will more likely see 4.2 to 4.5 million cases of Covid-19 in the U.S. alone.”
The predicted number of deaths was almost 32,000 and the actual value was 38,260 deaths in the U.S. from Covid-19 in Nov. So things are worse than I predicted.
My previous predictions for December through March were for cases and deaths to be much higher than November: more than double, possibly triple the numbers from Nov. Here’s an older article from my site Covid.us.org There were four studies considering human coronaviruses that cause colds, and how they increase in number of cases in winter. And now that same increase is occurring with Covid-19.
The number of Covid-19 cases in the U.S.
October 1.8 million
November 4.5 million
That means the number of cases was multiplied by about 2.5 — more than double!! What will the cases be in December and January? It could more than double in December, or if not, it will very likely more than double in January, as compared to November. This increase, month by month will not flatten out until Feb. or March, and will not begin to decrease until April. But that April decrease will be to a level seen in the previous December or November. We will not see low values until the season allows people to get out in the sun, so that sunshine on skin raises vitamin D levels.
See this article and the studies it reviews. The Covid-19 situation is about to get much worse in Dec, Jan, and Feb. And if we cannot vaccinate at least half the population within 30 or 60 days, many persons will suffer and many will die unnecessarily. I am in favor of vaccinations. But vitamin D is available NOW and has a much lower risk associated with it than any vaccine. So do both.
Why is Covid-19 increasing in Winter? because it is seasonal, just like the other coronaviruses. And why is it seasonal? because Covid-19 is HIGHLY affected by vitamin D blood levels. Persons who have vitamin D blood levels in the normal range — just the low to middle of the normal range — greatly benefit against Covid-19. There are over 30 studies showing that vitamin D can reduce risk of contracting Covid-19, reduce the severity of the disease if you contract it, and greatly reduce risk of dying from Covid-19.
We are seeing a vast increase in the number of cases and an increase in the number of deaths because every year the average vitamin D blood levels in the U.S. population (and many other nations) falls in the winter. It falls so much so that about half the population will have full blown vitamin D deficiency and about another 25% will have vitamin D insufficiency in winter. That is the cause of this Winter Wave!
The Solution is either of two plans. I prefer plan A, as it is faster in raising vitamin D levels.
Plan A. Each adult should take 100,000 IU of vitamin D3 every day for 6 days. After that, take 100,000 IU of Vitamin D3 once a week. So that is one hundred thousand IU of vitamin D3 every single day for six consecutive days, for a total of 600,000 IU for that week. Then, the next week, meaning about 7 days or more later, begin taking 100,000 IU once a week.
(Note that vitamin D3 is available in high dose formulations, either a liquid or a pill with 50,000 IU per pill. If you can’t find those formulations, you could take 10 of the 10,000 IU vitamin D pills each time.)
Plan B. Each adult should take 300,000 IU of vitamin D3 once only. Then the next day start taking 10,000 IU of vitamin D3 per day continuously. So that’s one dose of three hundred thousand international units of vitamin D3, followed, starting the next day, by a dose, once every day, of ten thousand international units of vitamin D3.
(How do you take 300,000 IU of vitamin D3? You could take 6 of the 50,000 IU vitamin D pills, once only. Or you could take 30 of the 10,000 IU vitamin D pills, not all at once. If you don’t have the high dose vitamin D, then you should probably spread out those 30 pills over several days. It really doesn’t matter if you get that initial high dose all on one day, or spread out over several days.)
Many studies of vitamin D have shown the safety of giving adults a “bolus dose”, meaning a single high dose of vitamin D. Studies of Covid-19 and vitamin D are here, showing the many benefits of vitamin D against that disease.
See my website Covid.us.org for other supplements that may help against Covid-19.
If you contract Covid-19 AND you have not been taking vitamin D (and you are not sure that your vitamin D blood level is normal), you should take 100,000 IU of vitamin D3 every day for 6 days, then take 100,000 IU of vitamin D3 once a week after that. Then see my covid website for other supplements to take.
Ronald L. Conte Jr.