November may see as many as 4.2 to 4.5 million cases of Covid-19

In the U.S. the number of Covid-19 cases for the last 7 days, Nov. 3 to 9, was 854,483 cases with 7,452 deaths for a daily average of 122,069 cases and 1,065 deaths. If this rate stays flat, November will see 3,662,070 cases and 31,937 deaths. But if the rise in cases continues, as it has been rising over more than the last month and longer, then November will more likely see 4.2 to 4.5 million cases of Covid-19 in the U.S. alone.

According to my past analysis, based on studies of seasonal human coronaviruses that cause colds, December will see an even greater number of cases, and January and February will also have a large increase over December. The number of cases could be 6 or 7 million per month, or more.

Here’s the original article from August 3rd. Different studies found different values for the winter increase. But the way it looks now, the increase will be higher than the low end of that range.


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4 Responses to November may see as many as 4.2 to 4.5 million cases of Covid-19

  1. Thomas Mazanec says:

    How will summer 2021 compare to spring 2021? Will there be a continued decline? What about autumn 2021?

    • Ron Conte says:

      Jan, Feb, March will be very bad, with many cases and deaths, unless the govt takes action, either a long shutdown or a vitamin D programs or a massive vaccine program. As summer begins, vitamin D levels will rise, and cases will fall. Cases will begin to decline from the highs in winter, less in April, less in May, and then June to Sept will be lowest in cases.

  2. Thomas Mazanec says:

    Will next winter be as bad as the one beginning, or will it be even worse?

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