UPDATE: In this election, up until Nov 5th, Biden had 51.46% of the vote, and Trump had 48.54%. Then, in the last two days, 11:37 am Nov. 5th to 11:37 am Nov 7th, the ratio of votes changed to 58.27% for Biden and 41.73% for Trump. That 7% swing in the votes counted has no explanation. It’s outside of normal statistical variation.
And as I wrote before:
In 51 contests, 50 States plus D.C., nine or fewer can be considered “close”, where the winner is separated from the loser by a certain percentage of the vote. At a margin of 6% difference between the two candidates, Biden and Trump, nine contests are close, three for Trump
Texas 5.8% margin
Florida 3.3% margin
North Carolina 1.4% margin (assuming Trump wins)
and six contests are close and go to Biden:
This assumes Biden wins Georgia and Penn., since he is ahead in those States with <1% of the vote to count.
For a margin of <7%, Biden wins 6 and Trump wins 3.
For a margin of <6%, Biden wins 6 and Trump wins 3.
For a margin of <5% or <4%, Biden wins 6 and Trump wins 2.
For a margin of <3%, Biden wins 6 and Trump wins 1.
For a margin of <2%, Biden wins 5 and Trump wins 1.
For a margin of <1%, Biden wins 4 and Trump wins zero.
What are the odds that in close contests, Biden would win such an overwhelming majority, in such a close election? He is winning the popular vote by only 2.7%. And many of these close contests are in traditionally Republican States. We should expect, in a fair election, that approximately half of these close contests, or perhaps a little more than half, would go to Biden. Yet he wins anywhere from 6 out of 9 (66.6%) to 6 out of 7 (85.7%) to 4 out of 4 (100%). And the fact that he still wins an overwhelming percentage of close contests, no matter where the bar is set for a contest to be close, shows that this is not just a statistical anomaly.
If we bring the margin for a "close" contest all the way up to 8% or less, Biden picks up another two contests, and Trump is still at 3 wins. So that would make it 8 out of 11 contests (72.7%) won by Biden when the voting margin is 8% or less. Those two additional States are Minnesota and New Hampshire.
For a margin of <8%, Biden wins 8 and Trump wins 3.
Now, if Trump loses North Carolina to Biden, which had a vote margin of 1.4% as of this writing, then the numbers become even more biased toward Biden.
For some reason that is clear from the numbers, and unclear from the situation, Republicans rarely win a State when the voting margin is 8% or less. They have to win by an overwhelming majority, or else their odds of winning plummet — for no good reason.
The only answer that would explain this data is that the Democrats are able to increase their votes in any State where things are close, and Republicans are not able. How are they doing this? Maybe it's some kind of clever get-out-the-vote strategy.
Ronald L. Conte Jr.