Why Did Biden Win A Disproportionate Share of the Close Contests?

UPDATE: In this election, up until Nov 5th, Biden had 51.46% of the vote, and Trump had 48.54%. Then, in the last two days, 11:37 am Nov. 5th to 11:37 am Nov 7th, the ratio of votes changed to 58.27% for Biden and 41.73% for Trump. That 7% swing in the votes counted has no explanation. It’s outside of normal statistical variation.

And as I wrote before:

In 51 contests, 50 States plus D.C., nine or fewer can be considered “close”, where the winner is separated from the loser by a certain percentage of the vote. At a margin of 6% difference between the two candidates, Biden and Trump, nine contests are close, three for Trump
Texas 5.8% margin
Florida 3.3% margin
North Carolina 1.4% margin (assuming Trump wins)

and six contests are close and go to Biden:
Georgia <0.1%
Pennsylvania 0.1%
Wisconsin 0.7%
Nevada 0.9%
Arizona 1.6%
Michigan 2.7%
This assumes Biden wins Georgia and Penn., since he is ahead in those States with <1% of the vote to count.

For a margin of <7%, Biden wins 6 and Trump wins 3.
For a margin of <6%, Biden wins 6 and Trump wins 3.
For a margin of <5% or <4%, Biden wins 6 and Trump wins 2.
For a margin of <3%, Biden wins 6 and Trump wins 1.
For a margin of <2%, Biden wins 5 and Trump wins 1.
For a margin of <1%, Biden wins 4 and Trump wins zero.

What are the odds that in close contests, Biden would win such an overwhelming majority, in such a close election? He is winning the popular vote by only 2.7%. And many of these close contests are in traditionally Republican States. We should expect, in a fair election, that approximately half of these close contests, or perhaps a little more than half, would go to Biden. Yet he wins anywhere from 6 out of 9 (66.6%) to 6 out of 7 (85.7%) to 4 out of 4 (100%). And the fact that he still wins an overwhelming percentage of close contests, no matter where the bar is set for a contest to be close, shows that this is not just a statistical anomaly.

If we bring the margin for a "close" contest all the way up to 8% or less, Biden picks up another two contests, and Trump is still at 3 wins. So that would make it 8 out of 11 contests (72.7%) won by Biden when the voting margin is 8% or less. Those two additional States are Minnesota and New Hampshire.

For a margin of <8%, Biden wins 8 and Trump wins 3.

Now, if Trump loses North Carolina to Biden, which had a vote margin of 1.4% as of this writing, then the numbers become even more biased toward Biden.

For some reason that is clear from the numbers, and unclear from the situation, Republicans rarely win a State when the voting margin is 8% or less. They have to win by an overwhelming majority, or else their odds of winning plummet — for no good reason.

The only answer that would explain this data is that the Democrats are able to increase their votes in any State where things are close, and Republicans are not able. How are they doing this? Maybe it's some kind of clever get-out-the-vote strategy.

Ronald L. Conte Jr.

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7 Responses to Why Did Biden Win A Disproportionate Share of the Close Contests?

  1. Mark Davis says:

    It’s called cheating. Just take a look at the news reports of all sorts of funny business in Pennsylvania and Nevada. The Democrat machine is well known for cheating, or anything else they need to do to win an election.

  2. Henry says:

    Well 75% of the Bishops are happy with a Biden win. 40% of Catholics voted for Biden. Too bad his priest did refuse him communion on election day when he attended Mass.. Francis would not be happy with that priest.

  3. King Robert the Bruce says:

    Do you honestly think there is any skulduggery at work here Ron many people in Europe and the World believe that Joe Biden is a fundamentally decent man unlike the current president. from my own point of view I pray for a Joe Biden victory it will help to secure the peace process in Ireland that is under threat from the English conservatives who are trying hard to wreck it. But Joe Biden will protect it he has warned them there will be no trade deal with the US if they jepordise the peace process, yes Joe Biden isn’t perfect and could take a stronger stance on issues like abortion but he is I believe and so do many others in the world he is a good man who will try to heal a disunited states of America. PS I actually believed Donald Trump would win the election in a landslide but it doesent look like it now.

    • Phil Brown says:

      Your probably right saying that “many people in Europe and the World believe that Joe Biden is a fundamentally decent man unlike the current president” is because most, if not all, negative criticism concerning Joe Biden was sensored by social media, print/online media, and broadcast media. Joe Biden kept himself away from the media so he would not have to answer any hard questions.

  4. Alex says:

    Biden declared winner by MSM, receiving congratulations by republicans like J. Bush and oversee dignitaries including Boris Johnson; looming court war that will reach the Supreme court, and even the possibility of certain states or candidate to reject unfavorable SCOTUS decision and wait a more beneficial decision by the new Congress. Do you think it will go all peaceful, or we will have a civil unrest if not war?

    • Ron Conte says:

      I think we are headed for civil unrest. Covid will get worse. Then there will have to be a Lockdown. People will be afraid and frustrated, and on top of that, election controversy. So it all makes the election conflict worse. There may be violent protests.

  5. Max says:

    The reason is that the Republican controlled legislatures in PA, WI & Michigan mandated that mail in ballots had to be counted after the election. So Trump had large margins on Nov 3rd because the mail in ballots would heavily favor Biden. Once they were counted, Trump lost, as he knew he would. The red mirage. Also why Trump tried to suppress voting by mail, since Biden voters would be the majority using mailing in ballots. I am surprised well intentioned people would support Trump, who is obviously is a wannabe dictator.

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