UPDATE: already this article’s predictions for cases and deaths is out-of-date. I’ll be writing a new post on the topic. The last week saw an increase of 250,000 more cases than the previous weekly total. If this continues, November will have over 4.2 million to as many as 4.5 million cases.
As of October 31st, it is proven that Covid-19 is seasonal and will be much worse in Winter. Therefore, we have only three options to stop the number of cases from rising so high that it overwhelms the healthcare system and the hospitals, causing a Healthcare Shutdown with a resultant massive death toll this winter:
1. Mandatory Vaccine — the vaccines in testing are not ready and they are not very good. This virus is very unusual, and so a vaccine might not work as well as vaccines usually work. But we’ll be forced by circumstances to have a mandatory vaccination program, as the number of cases rises to an overwhelming level this winter; or,
2. Mandatory Shutdown — and I mean a nationwide, very strict, severe shutdown that risks destroying the economy and breaking the food production and distribution system. Not smart, but probably what the politicians will choose to do, given their short-sightedness and their predilection to misuse power; or,
3. Mandatory Vitamin D Supplementation — you will show up at your local hospital or doctor’s office or clinic, and you will show your ID, sign a form, and take a dose of 300,000 IU to 500,000 IU of vitamin D, once per month (the higher dose is for adults who are overweight or obese). The teen and child doses will be lower and should be administered by schools, as they can verify the identity of each child.
There are over 30 studies of Covid-19 and vitamin D proving that vitamin D works BETTER than a hypothetical vaccine (even assuming an effectiveness as good as a flu vaccine, which is an optimistic assumption). Vitamin D reduces risk of infection, severity, and death from Covid-19. It’s our best option.
When you show up for your vitamin D injection or pills or liquid, you will be given a list of vitamins and minerals to take on a daily basis. One dose per month only is needed of vitamin D. The effect, nationwide, should be substantial. But for that effect to occur, we need a high degree of participation. It is similar to a vaccination program. Many persons need to participate for the greatest benefit to accrue to the nation.
This article proves that a vitamin D program would be more effective than a vaccination program. And the vaccines that are currently in testing have a high level of side effects, much more so than a flu vaccine, and their effectiveness is less certain than with vitamin D.
Winter is Coming
Covid-19 will be much worse this winter, because vitamin D is seasonal. The decrease in cases in August and September, and the increase in cases in October proves that Covid-19 is seasonal. And that means winter will be much worse.
Here’s my original article, published August 3rd, 2020, analyzing studies on the types of coronaviruses that cause colds, which are all seasonal. Then I apply the rise and fall of cases per month to Covid-19, which would only be correct if Covid-19 is also seasonal. My prediction was generally correct in that cases were lower in August and September, and higher in October. That is sufficient to show the disease is seasonal. Covid-19 is seasonal, just as the human coronaviruses that cause colds are seasonal. The prediction as to the number of cases is based on my original article here and data from multiple studies.
It’s also based on the over 30 studies that show Covid-19 is responsive to vitamin D levels in the blood. Many studies, including the
Martin Kroll study here show that vitamin D levels rise in Summer and fall in Winter. In the United States, almost half the population in a typical year will have a vitamin D deficiency in winter, and another 20-something percent will have vitamin D insufficiency (20 to 29 ng/ml). This year, due to more persons being indoors and less sunshine on skin, vitamin D deficiency will likely be higher. And the lower the level of vitamin D in the blood, the more likely you are to be infected with Covid-19 and the more likely you are to have a severe case of Covid-19, and the more likely you are to die of Covid-19. Vitamin D is what makes Covid-19 seasonal. So we can avoid the approaching Winter catastrophe by a vitamin D supplementation program. And such a program could even replace a vaccination program; the latter will be unnecessary, as long as there is sufficient compliance with the vitamin D program.
Failing a Vitamin D program, here’s what the number of cases will look like this winter:
My predictions for the number of cases in August and September, based on the idea that Covid-19 is seasonal, were too high; the actual values were lower. But for a seasonal disease, lower lows in the mildest months of July, Aug., Sept., means higher highs in the winter and early spring. And that is what we’ve now seen in October. The total new cases for Oct. was 1,955,308 and the prediction was 1,795,505, so the actual value was 8.9% higher. This would seem to suggest that the winter months will be similarly 9% or so higher than predicted. But Oct. and Nov. are transition months between the best and worst months. So it is likely that the worst months will be much more than 9% higher than predicted, possibly as much as 20 to 30% higher at its height in Jan. and Feb.
Original predictions, based on seasonality:
But now I expect Nov. to be 10 to 15% higher, December to be 15 to 20% higher, and January and February each to be 20 to 30% higher.
Nov. 2.55 to 2.66 million cases
Dec. 3.45 to 3.60
Jan. 4.03 to 4.36
Feb. 4.10 to 4.45
Mar. 4.00 to 4.18
Apr. 3.00 to 3.12
May 2.31 to 2.42
Jun. 1.40 to 1.60 million cases
The numbers for June, July, August, and September of 2021 will be pretty good. But we won’t survive as a nation or as a species until then. We can’t wait it out. We can’t wait for herd immunity to kick in, as the virus may mutate, and that means we will never have herd immunity. We can’t put all our hopes in a vaccine, as the current set of vaccines in trials are having problems. The side effects are higher than expected.
Notice that the high is 4.1 to 4.45 million cases in February, which is more than twice the value for October at nearly 2 million cases of Covid-19 in the United States. At first glance, this suggests that hospitals may see more than twice as many Covid-19 patients. But an increase in the number of cases may also indicate an increase in the severity of cases, meaning that hospitals could have triple or quadruple the number of Covid-19 in-patients. This will hit ERs and ICUs very hard, so hard they may break. They will be overwhelmed.
And if hospitals are overwhelmed, then the death rate — which has been slowly decreasing since early May — could suddenly jump much higher. The predicted number of deaths for Oct. was over 50,000, but the actual deaths were under 25,000. Doctors are getting better at treating Covid-19. But if hospitals break due to an overwhelming number of cases this winter, deaths per month could be in the hundreds of thousands. This would necessitate a severe shut down, to lower the spread of the disease and decrease cases and deaths.
Or, we could begin a nationwide vitamin D supplementation program, which would lower the number of cases by half and the number of deaths to perhaps one fifth. There are over 30 vitamin D Covid-19 studies proving the benefits of vitamin D against Covid-19. The Covid-19 virus developed in bats, and bats live in the dark. They don’t use vitamin D the way that other mammals use vitamin D. So the virus has not evolved a way to fight against vitamin D. This is providential. God has given us a doorway out of the pandemic. And it works for the poor of the world as well, since vitamin D is made when sunshine hits skin. So the disadvantaged in developing nations can obtain vitamin D from sunshine, for free, and persons in developed nations can obtain vitamin D from supplements (or sunshine, if they prefer).
A food fortification program will also be necessary, to reach those persons unwilling to take supplements and get out in the sunshine. We could just let people die from Covid-19, people who refuse vaccines, supplements, shutdowns, masks, social distancing. But that would not be compassionate. So we will need a mandatory program, either a Mandatory Shutdown, or a Mandatory Vaccine, or a Mandatory Vitamin D program. Which is the best option? Vitamin D.
Vitamin D supplementation can be done by mandating vitamin D in foods, especially foods that are widely consumed by the persons least likely to take vitamin D supplements (junk foods). The other way to have a mandatory vitamin D program is to give a bolus dose of vitamin D once a month. This can be done easily in nursing homes and hospitals and schools. But we will need to track who have received the dosage and when.
In addition, having people come in to the doctor’s office or clinic for a vitamin D supplement is not so different from a vaccination program. Most vaccines being proposed and studied require at least two shots, about a month apart. So it is certainly just as tenable to give people a vitamin D bolus (a large dose at one time) once a month for three or four months: Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb. And that should suffice. By March, cases will be in decline, especially if the food fortification program is in full force by then. Three or four doses will be enough. There are some other supplements that might help against Covid-19, but vitamin D is the key.