Predictions for This Winter: A Covid-19 Second Wave and More

First prediction: people will ignore my calls for a massive nationwide and worldwide vitamin D supplementation program and Covid-19 will see a massive Second Wave that will threaten the survival of the nations.

[The rest of the predictions will be in future posts. This post was too long.]

The Second Wave is an expected increase in Covid-19 cases, severity of cases, and deaths this winter due to lower vitamin D levels. The 22 VitD studies so far support this idea, as due past studies on seasonal VitD lows. How severe will it be? The data ranges from 100,000 to 300,000 deaths per month in December through March, on the LOW END of the range, and half a million to over one million deaths PER MONTH in the U.S. alone from Covid-19 in Dec. through March on the High End of the Range.

In either case, the result will be so severe that the hospital and healthcare system will BREAK. The nation will be forced to shutdown — a more severe shutdown than last time. Groceries stores will be empty and will close. There will be very few “essential businesses”. The economy will begin to collapse. People will resort to violent crimes to survive.

Solution? All this can be avoided if everyone takes a vitamin D supplement. There are two ways to go with the supplement regimen:
1. 50,000 IU of vitamin D3 once a day for one month, and then 50,000 IU of vitamin D3 once-a-week. This regimen is designed for persons who may have severe deficiency, may have difficulty absorbing vitamin D due to old age or other factors. It is safe.
2. 10,000 IU of vitamin D3 once a day for one month, and then 5,000 IU of vitamin D3 every day (or: and then 10,000 IU of vitamin D3 every other day).

For persons of different ages, #2 is modified as follows:
Infants: 400 IU/day (that’s just the RDA/AI for infants for that vitamin)
Children, 1-3: 2,000 IU/day (that’s less than the tolerable upper limit)
Children, 4-8: 2,500 IU/day (that’s less than the tolerable upper limit)
Children, 9-13: 3,000 IU/day (that’s less than the tolerable upper limit)
Teens, 14-18: 4,000 IU/day (that’s the tolerable upper limit for that age group)
Adults, 19-59: 10,000 IU/day
Seniors, 60+: 20,000 IU/day

Seniors have more difficulty absorbing vitamin D and they also make much less vitamin D from sunshine on skin, and they are more susceptible to Covid. So they get a higher dose. For a modified #1 regimen, 100,000 IU of vitamin D3 per day for two weeks for seniors, and then 100,000 IU of vitamin D3 once a week.

If anyone tells you to take less vitamin D3, including physicians and healthcare experts, ignore them. The danger of vitamin D toxicity is very low and relatively mild; the danger from Covid-19 is that you will end up on a mechanical ventilator for weeks or months, and then, if you survive, your lungs will be permanently damaged and it will hurt to breathe, for the rest of your miserable life. Or you could just suffer and drop dead. Or you could have massive tiny blood clots throughout your body. Or you could have severe damage to heart and/or liver and/or kidneys, and/or your brain. Or you could have LongCovid and suffer for months on end with no physician willing to even take you as a patient because they have no idea how to treat that shit.

Or just take a vitamin D3 pill once a day. Your choice. It’s basically an IQ test. How stupid are you? Take a daily pill. Or risk severe suffering and death.

There are 22 studies on vitamin D and Covid-19. Vitamin D reduces Covid-19 risks of infection [7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 14, 16] of a severe case [1, 3, 4, 5, 15, 17, 20, 22] of hospitalization, ICU care, mechanical ventilation [2, 10, 14, 15, 21, 22] and of dying [4, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13, 17, 18, 19, 22]. Take it! References here.

What are you waiting for? A recommendation from the WHO? Their head just stated that we need to be better prepared for the next pandemic. WHAT!!! What about THIS pandemic?! Don’t wait for the medical experts and politicians to tell you to take a vitamin pill.

My prediction for U.S. Covid-19 deaths for September was between 26,000 and 27,000. At one point, I predicted 1,333,803 cases and 27,423 deaths, specifically. Multiplying the daily average so far by 30 gives 26,414 deaths and 1.15 million cases. That will go up a little as we enter the second half of September and people are not in the sun as much. Vitamin D levels go down, and cases, severity, and deaths go up.

So I predicted 1.3 million cases for Sept, and looks like it will be 1.1 million cases instead. That’s bad news. A lower low indicates a higher high. so the low end of the range above is too low. The highs for monthly deaths will probably exceed 250,000 deaths per month in some winter months, and may reach 300,000 deaths — until the nation shuts down.

Do NOT contact me in winter and say, after the nationwide shutdown, “Your numbers were wrong”. They are correct, until the shutdown slows the spread of the disease. But then we will be faced with a dilemma, a long shutdown will destroy the economy and a refusal to shutdown will cost over a million lives across the entire winter season.

So what happens in winter is a typical decrease in the population wide levels of vitamin D in the blood — 25(OH)Vitamin D. And this leads to the increase in cases. But there is also an increase in the severity of the disease and therefore an increase in deaths. So if the cases and severity both increase, you get a much greater increase in the death rate. Here are the predictions on the Low End of the Range:

As you can see, cases double from Sept to Oct, then double again in Nov, then double again by January, and remain high through March, then a decline starts in either Jan or March, and things remain fairly bad until June of 2021.

People don’t understand something very simple about this pandemic. It is only now spreading widely enough that we will see the full scope of the damage. Only now is there enough infected persons that the cases and deaths can ramp up suddenly and severely. We are still at the very beginning of the pandemic.

People are being fooled by the fact that vitamin D levels predict lowest cases and mildest cases for July through September, with Sept being usually the mildest month of all. So now some experts are saying its nearly over. Some are claiming we’ve reached “herd immunity”. What the #$%& is wrong with you! You can’t have herd immunity with only 2% of the U.S. population having been infected and recovered. Maybe there are mild cases that go unreported. Sure there are. Yup. That brings us up to 4%. Typical herd immunity threshold is two-thirds of the population: 67% who either have been vaccinated (with an effective vaccine) or who got sick and recovered. And a large percentage of Covid victims don’t recover for months. This is going to impact our healthcare system severely for years and years (or until God intervenes with a miracle).


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7 Responses to Predictions for This Winter: A Covid-19 Second Wave and More

  1. Anonymous says:

    What is the best brand of supplement to purchase? Is all Vitamin D the same? What kind do you recommend?

  2. Matt says:

    To make matters worse, the upcoming national presidential election may be quite interesting. If Trump wins on election night and the race is rather close, Biden may not concede until all mail in ballots are counted. This could take weeks to complete and will likely be challenged by Trump to the Supreme Court. If mail in ballots show Biden winning instead, Trump may demand verification of each mailed in ballot. This could take months to complete. God help this Country!

  3. Thomas Mazanec says:

    Forgive me if you have posted this before and I missed it.
    How did you come up with these projections for cases and fatalities months into the future? What was your methodology?

    • Ron Conte says:

      Methodology is explained here. Most of my writings on Covid are at Four studies show that coronaviruses are seasonal. 23 studies show that low vitamin D levels increase risk of infection, severity, and death in Covid-19. And it is well-known that vitamin D levels are lower in winter, especially in regions where winter is cold and summer is hot, and where the sun is lower in the sky in winter (northern latitudes). So the method is to look at the difference in case rates for winter months versus summer months, as a ratio, and use data from Covid-19 monthly cases and that ratio to predict cases. Then the case fatality rate is taken from earlier this year, in different months, since severity increases with lower vitamin D levels.

  4. Thomas Mazanec says:

    Has the Southern Hemisphere gone through a surge this winter (June, July, August) like you predict for the Northern Hemisphere winter?

    • Ron Conte says:

      There’s no good point of comparison in the Southern Hemi. Only 1/8th of the world population lives below the equator, and most are relatively near the equator. Then Australia has very mild winters, and they get lots of sun most of the year. So you can’t tell. August and Sept were low cases/deaths, as predicted. October should have double the deaths of Sept., then Nov. double again.

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