Iran is known to have given Hamas hundreds of millions of dollars in funding across many years. Iran reportedly trained some of the Hamas militants who attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and may have given its approval to the Hamas attack. It is uncertain how involved Iran may have been in possibly planning the details of the attack. Iran controls Hezbollah, but is only allied with Hamas.
Now that war is underway between Israel and Gaza, Iran has an opportunity for a nuclear breakout.
Israel is occupied in fighting Hamas in Gaza and must also commit forces to defend the north against attacks from Hezbollah. In addition, Israel must prepare for the possibility of a larger war involving multiple Arab/Muslim nations. Therefore, Israel cannot afford to attack Iran’s nuclear program at this time. Such an attack would likely result in declarations of war against Israel by several Muslim nations in the region along with Iran. Given that multiple nations and militant groups are publicly committed to wiping Israel from the map, Israel must avoid a larger war.
The United States would also be unlikely to attack Iran’s nuclear program, even if a nuclear breakout comes to light, for similar reasons. The U.S. is committed to helping Israel defend itself against multiple threats. The U.S. is also continuing to provide massive amounts of military aide to Ukraine, including billion of dollars’ worth of weapons and munitions taken from stockpiles intended for U.S. defense. (This is done by Presidential Drawdown Authority orders. This authority has been exercised “on 44 occasions since August 2021 to provide Ukraine military assistance totaling approximately $23.8 billion from DoD stockpiles.” State.gov) The United States is also committed to the defense of Taiwan against a possible blockade or invasion by China.
A U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear program could cause Iran and other Muslim nations in the region to declare war against both Israel and the U.S., resulting in an over-commitment of U.S. forces to the Middle East, to the substantial disadvantage of Ukraine and Taiwan. The U.S. would then have to consider the possible loss of the Ukraine war, as well as a possible move against Taiwan by China. These considerations make it unlikely that either the U.S. or Israel would attack Iran, even if a nuclear breakout were in progress. And so Iran now has an opportunity for a nuclear “break out” — a rush to make nuclear weapons before other nations can intervene to stop them.
Iran’s nuclear program has progressed slowly over many years. At present, they are very close to obtaining enough weapon-grade uranium (WGU) to make 6 to 10 nuclear weapons. IAEA reports indicate that Iran has already accomplished most of the research and development tasks needed to design and manufacture a working implosion-type nuclear bomb. What they need now is enough WGU, and the time it takes to put together all the components.
In addition, news reports have described a new military (or possibly nuclear) facility in Iran, built deep into the Zagros mountains, beyond the reach of current conventional “bunker-buster” type weapons: AP News (May 22, 2023). “Near a peak of the Zagros Mountains in central Iran, workers are building a nuclear facility so deep in the earth that it is likely beyond the range of a last-ditch U.S. weapon designed to destroy such sites, according to experts and satellite imagery analyzed by The Associated Press.”
The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS or @thegoodISIS on Twitter) issued an analysis on 8 Sept. 2023, based on the IAEA report of 4 Sept. 2023, on the current state of Iran’s nuclear program. The summary includes the following statements:
Institute for Science and International Security, 8 Sept. 2023
“Iran retains the ability, using 40 kilograms (kg) of 60 percent highly enriched uranium (HEU) and three or four advanced centrifuge cascades, to break out and produce enough weapon-grade enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in 12 days. Currently, Iran would only need one-third of its existing stock of 60 percent enriched uranium. This breakout could be difficult for the IAEA to detect promptly, if Iran delayed inspectors’ access.”
[…]
“In summary, Iran could produce enough WGU for six nuclear weapons in one month, eight in two months, nine in three months, and ten in four months. Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent HEU was 121.6 kg (Uranium mass, or U mass) or 179.9 kg uranium hexafluoride mass (hex mass) as of August 19.”
David Albright, of the Institute for Science and International Security, stated in a “Twitter Spaces” interview that it would take 6 months for Iran to make enough weapon-grade uranium AND complete all other components for several nuclear bombs (35:00 mark and following). But he also states that some of the work needed, other than making WGU, may already have been completed in secrecy, reducing the 6 month time to as little as two months, in order to complete multiple working nuclear weapons (37:00 mark).
When Albright was asked whether Iran might view the Gaza war as Iran’s best opportunity to breakout (38:30), he replied “it could be”. And he added that in “twenty years of following the Iran [nuclear] program very intensely,” he has not seen as good an opportunity for Iran to break out “without facing the wrath of the world until now.” (ending at 41:25 mark). Then he added, “So I think this scenario needs to be taken very seriously, that this may be the time Iran decides to build nuclear weapons and feels that it has a strategy that it can get away with it.” (ending 41:45).
An article in the Jerusalem Post agrees that Iran might use the Gaza war “crisis” as cover for a covert nuclear breakout. Quotes from the article follow:
Jerusalem Post, Oct. 25, 2023, Could Iran try to use crisis for nuke sneakout?:
“Though Israel has been worried about an Iranian nuclear weapon since the 1990s, it and the world may currently be blind to an Iranian nuclear sneakout (as opposed to a public and open “breakout.”) Jerusalem became far more seriously worried about a nuclear weapon after Iran hiked up its uranium enrichment to 60% in 2021. In February of this year, top US Pentagon official Colin Kahl told the US Congress that the Islamic Republic could enrich enough fissile material, 90% weaponized uranium, for a nuclear bomb in only 12 days. In May, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Tehran could in a relatively short time enrich its 60% and 20% uranium stock up to enough weaponized material for around five nuclear weapons.”
“On September 16, just three weeks before the Hamas invasion, Iran kicked out an unprecedented number of IAEA nuclear inspectors from its country. This was after Iran had already shut off many IAEA cameras in two rounds dating back to early 2021. In fact, in 2022, after Iran had shut off additional significant aspects of IAEA surveillance of its nuclear program, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi described this as a “fatal blow” to the JCPOA that had left his inspectors “blind” to much of what was occurring in the Islamic Republic’ nuclear facilities.”
With the reduction in experienced IAEA inspectors, the loss of much of the remote camera monitoring, and the distraction of the Israel Hamas war, Iran has an opportunity to breakout in secret — with limited consequences if the breakout is discovered.
4 Sept 2023 – IAEA report on Iran nuclear program.
8 Sept 2023 – ISIS report saying that Iran can make 6 quantities of WGU in 30 days.
16 Sept 2023 – Iran bans several top IAEA inspectors from monitoring their nuclear program.
7 Oct 2023 – Hamas attack on Israel, reportedly supported by Iran.
16 Oct 2023 – Thirty days since top IAEA inspectors banned from Iran.
Given the above information, Iran might have already secretly produced enough WGU for several nuclear bombs by now. IF so, then they could have several working nuclear bombs within the next 5 months or less. As for the 2023 Israel Hamas War, Iran may have instigated the war as part of their plan to complete a nuclear breakout, with little chance that the U.S. and Israel will intervene if the breakout is discovered. If so, the balance of power in the Middle East and in the world may be about to change, radically. A nuclear Iran would cause rejoicing among the enemies of Israel. Many nations in the region would want to ally with Iran, to share in their increase in power. And a war against the West would become much more likely.
See my previous post: Iran will soon have Nukes and is likely to Use Them
UPDATE: Hamas planned for massacre during Passover, Iran forced delay – report. Perhaps Iran forced a delay in the attack because they were not yet ready for their nuclear breakout.
Ronald L Conte Jr
the reproach of Christ 
Just some “common” news from today:
1. Iranian defense minister: “Our advice to the Americans is to immediately stop the war in Gaza and implement a ceasefire, otherwise they will be hit hard,” Mohammad-Reza Ashtiani said.
2. Israeli minister Eliyahu: “Dropping a Nuke on Gaza is “An Option.” Rebuked by Netanyahu and banned from cabinet meetings. (Maybe not Gaza, but how about Iran?)
3. “Kremlin’s propaganda released a short animation showing a Russian nuclear strike on the US, with devastation of American cities including San Francisco and New York City”. https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1720876418593071481
4. connected to it below that post: “And here’s Shaman, Russia’s most ardently pro-war pop star, setting off fireworks on state TV last night by pushing a big red button in a fake nuclear football” https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1721103706198880647
(I did a search for that unknown to me pop star – he sang along Putin the Russian anthem on the Red square).
Those news are already normalized. We don’t care of them anymore. Everyday brings worse news that are being normalized as well.
I cannot stress enough how close we are to crossing Rubicon or to Franz Ferdinand event (that could take a form of “unexpected” mushroom cloud in any of the hot spots). After which there will be no way back, out of fear “if we don’t nuke you first, you will nuke us first”. As shown in numerous WW3 movies and documentaries (a must watch is Able Archer 1983 documentary -closer to WW3 than during the Cuban crisis). I know devote traditional Catholics in USA who have almost no idea that their illusionary self-contained world that is centered around the daily Holy Mass can end in a minute. All they say is Lepanto, Lepanto…but during Lepanto people prayed the rosary en masse. Jesus said: “Pray that your flight will not take place in winter or on the Sabbath.” First, He said Flight, he didn’t say a miraculous fixing the situation when the godly people are less than 10 percent. And because no one is praying for it, maybe it will take place exactly in Winter and on Sabbath or holiday. Or late Autumn and not Sabbath but a holiday or a Friday stretching into the weekend and not stopping Monday but continuing for the rest of our lives and beyond. We live as if the nuclear war or WW3 is a one day event maximum three days, and then God will restore the world with a magic wand. The world will be unrecognizable, it will take 7 years only for decontamination of the corpses, according to Ezekiel’s Gog and Magog war.
Everything is in God’s hands who is the master of history and knows where we are going and when exactly. But we are not prepared to answer to God’s grace. As one apparition said – neither the good ones nor the bad ones are answering to God’s call. Currently, we should have nuclear drills everywhere, family, parishes, schools, communities, libraries. Some countries do them, ironically the big adversary country Russia is doing them most, but also some small European countries. We are satisfied (in USA) with subway posters how to find a cover that is not our car but a building, how to stay inside and bring a radio to listen. And that is the most said that many other cities don’t even do. We were warned for several days supplies in Europe. Nobody is telling us the whole truth. Not even the Vatican who knows quite a bit more than us. Nobody will warn us in advance. As said in a number of movies, the last big one Greenland. The panic will ensue the moment the news is on CNN or a big enough number of people is notified. Notice that your car that you count so much on it may be unusable after the EMP and/or the jammed roads. You need flexibility upon the real situation as it unfolds that is too long to explain in comments and is not my goal. First of all an open mind, together with and filled with God’s grace.
I would like to add the following:
Atrocities around the world are mainly happening due to the loss of LOVE towards God and neighbor. They certainly have no FEAR of the God Almighty.
Jewish people have been facing atrocities for over 3,000 years. This war with Israel and Hamas will not end until Hamas in Gaza is completely extinguished. The propaganda being spewed by people of all persuasions against Israel is not a surprise.
The indoctrination of the youth around the world has been ongoing for many years. They are taught and adhere to a philosophy where all Western Civilizations / Democratic Nations are evil. Unfortunately, the elites, education, major news media, etc… of Western Civilizations agree with premise of being evil. We are at a point of no return. The voices of the righteous do not have a platform to counter all the propaganda around the world.
I do feel pain for all the innocent lives of both sides being lost. However, The Palestinians’ majority by a large margin voted for Hamas in 2005 / 2006. Their indoctrination of hate towards Israel was manifested by Hamas. In cases of war, I will not condemn the defenders of their land for any casualties against the Palestinians.
I wonder if this war initiated by Hamas is the precursor for the start of the Tribulation.
I do not see this war ending but only expanding with other nations getting involved against Israel and the Western Civilization.
The next hotspot is in the Indo-Pacific. China has been very aggressive in expanding their territories and preventing the rightful owner from fishing in their own territory. There have been incidents where China has aggressively and dangerously caused havoc towards other nations claiming their rights of their islands and waterways. In the next few months, we will see the navies of Japan, Philippines, Australia, Canada and the USA patrolling and escorting the boats of rightful owners to fish in their own
waters. It will be very interesting to see what China’s reaction will be.
My last thought is – I always believed Garabandal and Medjugorje would happen prior to the Tribulation. I am now not sure, maybe it happens after the first, second and third seals.
Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, gave a speech in which he refused to engage Israel in all out war. I suggest that, since Iran largely controls Hezbollah, he is not permitted by Iran to widen the conflict. Iran wants this war as a cover for nuclear breakout. They do not want a wider war UNTIL they have enough nukes to make a difference.
Civilian bombings with thousands of victims many of whom children, must stop without any precondition. Israel ruins the international favor for its cause by not hearing the united voice of the world public opinion. That doesn’t mean one is against Israeli right of its own land to be secure. That means what it is: the bombings and killings of children in Gaza must stop overnight!
Or tomorrow we risk to wake up with mushroom clouds.
While there are accusations and counteraccusations, actions and counteractions, with Hamas clearly being the one who started it first, the world goes closer to the nuclear war than ever before. As if Ukraine conflict wasn’t enough to bring Armageddon, as Canadian prepper framed it.
The news in the last minute:
After todays successful attack by Hezbollah, Israel is threatening to bomb Beirut, per Al Jazerra.
Nasrallah speech yesterday was everything but peaceful. He just didn’t utter the words “declaration of war” maybe not to be accused by the generations that he and Iran started it.
It is possible Iran already have clandestine nuclear program deep underground that the IAEA have no clue about. All they know is what Iran voluntarily showed them.
Iran cannot be taken out conventionally, or the cost will be too high. Also NATO is not unanimous on Iran. Iran can be only nuked, by USA or Israel. Will China wait then? Will Russia? We don’t know their plans. It could be anything.
Time to prepare is now. Imagine tomorrow you wake up without electricity, internet and phone service due to EMP of unannounced on CNN nuclear attack by any of those countries and organizations. You wouldn’t even know who started it first. What would you do? Make a drill at home and see what is missing. Maybe the radiation pills? Maybe the communication devices? Maybe the EMP proof packages? The food indoor won’t be affected from a far away blast. And if it is too near it wouldn’t matter. From the moment the internet/phone blackout comes, you will be on your own, with God’s help of course. But we must realize that God is God to all not only to us, and that He warned us many many times. I am sorry to say but millions of hard believers are not ready. Maybe they are most ready to die as saints, kind of. I provided enough info and links the last times.
Escalation may happen in hours and days. Until then it will be as “usual” a slow escalation so slow that we don’t pay attention when the next bridge or building is blown up, in Israel or Ukraine. From the moment the decision for the final action is taken, the opening of envelops in submarines as we see on movies, or VLF signals, to the complete blackout in the places not directly hit by fireballs, it will take anywhere between half an hour and several hours/days, but we won’t know it is happening. Except for indirect signs.
Such indirect sign could be an attack of Iran on US bases (a pretty direct one) or vice versus. Or a nuclear explosion anywhere in the world.
The doomsday planes circle above USA as we speak, everyday. Check NY prepper on youtube. And the Russian system doesn’t even require a doomsday plane. It is called Dead hand.
So it is important we catch those signs that happen today and be ready at a moment notice to react. That includes bags with the few things you want to take and preserve for generations, and also that you can carry (watch again Greenland to see the chaos that will ensue even though their phones still worked).
That includes the state of your soul in first place. I guess most of the readers are well prepared spiritually.