Who Will We Fight?
I believe that the world is headed for a Third World War. This is apparent from current circumstances in politics and warfare, as well as from my research and study in eschatology. However, I don’t think that World War 3 will consist of a war between NATO and Russia, or between any combination of the three superpowers: United States, China, Russia. Despite the war in Ukraine and conflictual relations of the Western nations with Russia and China, a World War with those nations is highly likely; the potential destruction to all sides in the war is too great a deterrent.
However, an underappreciated danger right now is found in the Arab Muslim nations of the Middle East and northern Africa, particularly Iran. The leaders of Iran are extremist “Twelvers” who believe that they must start an apocalyptic war with the “infidels” (unbelievers) in order to usher in the return of the twelfth Imam and a worldwide Islamic kingdom. The group of Muslim nations in that region, if allied together, would be able to raise an army of millions of troops, motivated by misguided religious fervor. And if Iran obtains nukes, they do have the will to use those weapons against major cities in the West. Then my eschatology does indicate that World War 3 will be a very extensive war between the Western nations and the Arab Muslim nations of the Middle East and northern Africa.
Reasons the U.S. and NATO could lose World War 3
1. The Ukraine war has depleted stockpiles of weapons and munitions. The U.S. has given Ukraine over 2 million rounds of artillery, and we make only 15,000 artillery rounds per month. The situation is similar throughout NATO, and across many weapons systems and munitions. We do not have enough supplies to fight another Ukraine-level war, let alone a World War.
2. Raising production of various weapons and munitions to a wartime level would range from difficult to impossible, depending on the items and circumstances.
a) The globalization of the economy means that almost all weapons and munitions requires parts from other nations. If those nations are not on a wartime production footing, like the U.S., there will not be enough of certain crucial parts to complete a weapon or munition. (During the semiconductor shortage of 2021, GM was making cars and parking them in large lots, unable to complete the cars due to a lack of chips. A similar situation could occur with weapons during a major war.)
b) The U.S. has low unemployment, and a wartime draftee would reduce available labor even more, making wartime production impossible to increase to a sufficient amount.
c) Most manufacturing facilities used to make products for the U.S. are in China or other developing nations, where labor is cheap and plentiful, and where building factories is less expensive for many reasons. We do not have the manufacturing facilities to make large amounts of weapons and munitions.
d) Modern weapons systems are very complex, requiring many more parts and much more manufacturing time and labor, making a shift to wartime production very difficult.
3. A World War would require massive troop conscription, much more extensive than the draft during the Vietnam war. The U.S. and the European nations of NATO would be unlikely to raise sufficient troops, for many reasons:
a) Many young adults are not physically fit for military service, as our society is largely sedentary, and young adults are often psychologically dependent on smart phones, video games, the internet, and a middle-class lifestyle.
b) Young adults are generally against war, unwilling to use deadly force, and unfamiliar with firearms.
c) Opposition to a draft (conscription) would be high, just as when Russia attempted a “partial mobilization” and over half a million young adult men fled the nation.
d) Protests would be very extensive, disruptive to society, and might influence legislators against the draft.
e) A nation cannot fight a major war without a draft, as the attrition of its regular troops over time would leave the nation largely defenseless.
f) Draftees would be poorly-motivated, due to the attitudes of our culture against war, firearms, mandatory military service, and patriotism (which many see as a negative value).
g) Modern weapons systems require a much higher level of training, making draftees unfit to use many weapons systems without many months of training.
h) Poorly trained and unmotivated draftees are much more likely to die in battle, turning public opinion against the war.
4. Troops from the Arab Muslim nations of the Middle East and northern Africa might be motivated by misguided religious fervor and negative emotions toward the West and would therefore be more easily recruited and trained.
5. The same group of nations has a high percentage of their population of military age, whereas many Western nations have an aging population. This difference is due to declining birth rates in the West.
6. If those nations obtain nuclear weapons, they will be willing to use them against large cities, something the U.S. and NATO hopefully would be unwilling to do. (Yes, I know that the U.S. nuked Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War 2, but our politics and culture is different now.)
7. The U.S. and NATO have severely sanctioned Russia, and have supplied vast amounts of weapons to Ukraine to fight Russia. As a result, Russia will not take our side in World War 3, and will be likely to supply weapons, munitions, intel, training, and other supplies to our enemies in that War.
8. The U.S. has increased our semiconductor sanctions against China (as of late 2022, early 2023), in order to limit their military buildup and economic competitiveness. As a result, China will not take our side in World War 3, and will be likely to help our enemies in the War.
9. Once the U.S. becomes committed to a major War in Europe (or perhaps beforehand), China will be very likely take control of Taiwan. Then China+Taiwan will be able to control enough of the semiconductor supply chain and production capability to issue semiconductor sanctions against the U.S. and other nations. China+Taiwan could use take a page from the U.S. playbook and issue primary semiconductor sanctions against us, and secondary sanctions against any nation that violates China’s sanctions, such as Japan, South Korea, and the Association of South East Asian Nations. Once China controls semiconductor production and supplies across all those nations, they will control semiconductor production worldwide, as every nation needs some machinery or supplies as well as production capacity from those nations to make enough chips.
10. The U.S. Department of Defense buy over 2 billion semiconductors (microchips or “chips”) per year, in a non-war year. For wartime production, that number would be multiplied many times over. But the U.S. imports almost all microchips from Taiwan and other Asian nations. If China+Taiwan disrupts the supply chain by sanctioning the U.S., or if war between China and Taiwan destroys Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, or if a global semiconductor shortage (for any reason) severely limits the supply of chips to the U.S. military, then the U.S. will be UNABLE to produce enough weapons and munitions for a major war.
11. The same consideration applies to the rest of NATO. Wartime production would require an increase in semiconductor production beyond the current world capability. Also, it takes at least 3 months to make a new design of a microchip, and much longer when the supply chain is disrupted. This would throttle the chip supply and therefore the production of weapons, munitions, communication devices, etc.
12. Modern U.S. (and NATO) fighter jets and bombers are highly-sophisticated, and so require far more hours of maintenance, per hour of use in the field. Gone are the days when war planes could fly one sortie after another, with only short period of time in-between for refueling and re-arming. Each plane is capable of less hours of use per month, for this reason.
13. Modern weapons systems (planes, tanks, artillery, missile systems, etc.) are much more expensive, per plane, take much longer to build, and require many parts not made in the U.S. The result is that the U.S. and NATO will be unable to ramp up production of new weapons to a sufficient degree for a major war. For example, the U.S. can only manufacture 12 Abrams tanks per month. Each tank takes 6 months to build, so the 12 per month figure assumes that the production has been ongoing for at least 6 months. The more sophisticated a weapons system, the longer it takes to build and the more parts it needs. Obtaining parts for repair and maintenance has the same problem.
* “The USAF had initially planned to acquire more than 100 B-2s but only bought 21 of the US$2 billion-per-aircraft stealth bombers.” [Source]
* The USAF is only building about 8 or 9 B-21 bombers per year, the latest high-tech stealth bomber. We would need 225 B-21s for a war with China “according to Mark Gunzinger, a retired USAF colonel, who leads future concepts and capability assessments at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies” [Ibid.]
14. Many planes and tanks in our stockpile are not immediately capable of wartime use due to a lack of parts, and negligence in repair and maintenance. When weapons systems require parts from other nations, those parts might not be available in sufficient supply. And it may take too long to ready many weapons in our stockpile to effectively fight a major war.
15. The U.S. is not as willing to fight in a war in Europe as the European nations. They would be defending their own territory and homes, whereas a European world war will not result in an invasion of the U.S. So the help that we provide will be limited, no matter what our politicians say. During World War 2, our President, F.D.R., was reelected on a promise NOT to enter World War 2. We only entered the War due to the attack on Pearl Harbor.
At a certain point, the United States will stop fighting in a war outside of the U.S. or North America.
16. Edited to add this link: Our military is in a dangerous decline and this is the reason why
17. Edited to add: the Army’s new Next Gen Squad Automatic Weapon (NGSAW) is too heavy, has too much recoil for full auto fire, and uses non-NATO-standard ammunition. That is not a good rifle for a major war, where you need conscription and under-trained, undermotivated troops.
My interpretation of the Book of Daniel indicates that the U.S. and NATO will lose World War 3 to the Arab Muslim nations of the Middle East and northern Africa. They will occupy and oppress Europe, and will rule over a vast territory. Then, in World War 4, the U.S. and Allies will defeat the same enemy, and free the occupied nations, but at great cost.
More of my writings on the future and other topics in this list on my website: CatholicPlanet.com
Ronald L. Conte Jr.
I can imagine the reaction of Macron when the mujahidins attack France, many from within. Will he use nuclear weapons, and against whom? Will Russia allow Europe to be overrun by the Muslims? IDK.
It seems to me the situation cannot go on for another year without the current war to escalate. Diplomatic negotiations have been ongoing during the entire Cold War including the Cuban crisis. Now, we have the ICC ruling against Putin, Lavrov is banned from travelling, and Medvedev the ex-president who had the nuclear codes, now speaks every day of a nuclear war. Could that state of rhetoric, much worse than during the Cold War, be sustainable for another year(s), while the war in Ukraine continues, or China attacks Taiwan, or devastating Middle Eastern war? It is hard to imagine. It never happened before. All the wars of the past were fought differently.
You are right for the depletion of ammo to a degree not to be possible to restore it in short term or ever. When the conventional forces are depleted, come the turn of the nuclear ones. Will they be only tactical nukes, where the ratio is in favor of Russia? And what secret weapons will be used as well? Maybe that is what the West counts on.
And the big question for all of us, how much time will we have to evacuate and where? After the Vatican admitted for a Pole shift in the newly published vision of Sr Lucia, it is clear where we go – nobody on the surface could survive when that event happens, due to tsunami, tectonic plate shifts, lava flows, winds with subsonic speed of a plane, broken all windows of concrete buildings and torn down all family houses of American type, loss of all utilities like water, heat, electricity… No matter how prepared some in the countryside are, they will not last for long. Here I advice some apocalyptic movies the latest of which was Greenland. It will be denied till the last moment.
Could it be triggered by a major nuclear explosion having a propulsion effect on the earth’s axis, or the cause will be of celestial origin? And if the presidents know of that info available online, and likely much, much more, why they are still willing to push towards nuclear conflict? What is it they don’t tell us? I may have some answer that I will keep private. How much time will we be given to know and decide what to do? My guess is less than 10 days. Most of the people are not prepared to survive longer than that, and that period of readiness (water, food, light, radio) was advised by several European politicians. That period corresponds also to Medjugorje (10 d) and Garabandal (8d) forewarnings. So maybe we have enough candles for that short period of total panic and chaos, but not enough information. Hope enough rosaries said too.
“newly published vision of Sr Lucia” What do you mean by this? Did the Vatican release a new vision?
I believe your assessments to be correct. The citizens in the USA are so polarized where even attacked on its own homeland, 50% of its population will not abide by a draft of the military. Yes, the citizens will come together for a very short duration. The USA will have to fight a defensive war for several years. During that span of years, the USA with the Netherlands will then again be up to speed on semiconductors.
I believe the time will come for the Great Catholic Monarch and Angelic Shepherd to galvanize the Western Civilization to reclaim their lost territories and defeat all enemies. The landscape of the world (allies, countries, enemies) will have dramatic change(s).
A third source is a taped conversation between Conchita and Bishop Franciso Garmendia, Auxiliary Bishop of New York, on August 27, 1981, wherein Conchita said:
“The Virgin told me that before the Miracle, there will be only three popes. That same day—I don’t know if you remember but in France they were saying that in 1962 world war would break out—she (The Virgin) told us that there would never be another world war. Everybody, in fact, was frightened that day, including me, when the Virgin appeared and said, ‘Don’t be afraid because there will never be a world war.’”
The word “never” in the latter source is very crucial, since such prophecy would extend to our days, even to the end of the world.
The prophecy of La Salette has the Virgin Mary describing terrible wars. So the assertion that there would not be a world war has a limited context. There will not be a world war between any of the three superpowers.
Seems like Marie-Julie Jahenny prophecies are about to happen with all what’s going on in France lately. According to her prophecies, an invasion on Europe will come from Russia and from Islamic nations after civil wars erupt in France and other European nations. I don’t think it will be an exclusively Arab Muslim invasion as they don’t have the military capacity to pull an invasion on Europe. I also don’t think a World War IV is possible as a Wold War III would be enough to exterminate a good portion of humanity. I think the civil wars will start on June-July this year, and the Russo-Muslim invasion for 2024 or 2025, at the most.
I think that World War 3 will be an invasion of Europe by the Arab/Muslim nations of the Middle East and northern Africa. But Russia and China will support them with weapons, munitions, intel, etc. We have stupidly turned Russia and China into our enemies, and they will respond accordingly.
In my view the Warning and Miracle can happen anytime now. I now see the 3 main prophetic topics having occurred to fulfill the upcoming Garabandal Prophecy. The 3 main items are 1. Three Popes 2. Synod 3. Return of Communism.
I was on the fence for the return of communism due to the quote of “When the world is at its worst”. I now realize that phrase can be measured in many different degrees of accuracy and persons can have different opinions.
The return of communism has most assuredly occurred.
Looking back to the 1980s’ and 1990s’, The Consecration of Russia had occurred where hearts and minds of individuals were transformed.
Gorbachev introduced two sets of policies that he hoped would help the USSR become a more prosperous, productive nation. The first of these was known as glasnost, or political openness. Glasnost eliminated traces of Stalinist repression, like the banning of books and the omnipresent secret police, and gave new freedoms to Soviet citizens. Political prisoners were released. Newspapers could print criticisms of the government. For the first time, parties other than the Communist Party could participate in elections.
The second set of reforms was known as perestroika, or economic restructuring. The best way to revive the Soviet economy, Gorbachev thought, was to loosen the government’s grip on it. He believed that private initiative would lead to innovation, so individuals and cooperatives were allowed to own businesses for the first time since the 1920s. Workers were given the right to strike for better wages and conditions. Gorbachev also encouraged foreign investment in Soviet enterprises.
The breakup of the Federation of Russia:
1. Poland transformed into a democracy
2. Taking down of the Berlin Wall
3. Belarus and Ukraine were followed by eight of the nine remaining republics, who declared their independence from the U.S.S.R. after a meeting in Alma-Ata, in today’s Kazakhstan. (Georgia joined two years later.)
The current regime of Putin for the most part has erased the 2 major reforms put forth by Gorbachev and continues to be aggressive in taking back the countries once belonging to the Federation. If this is not the return of communism – I am lost.
I believe the Consecration of Russia was a one-time event. Our Blessed Mother gave a singular message. This does not mean we should not continue to pray for a reform in Russia.
On another topic, I don’t believe we have the full transcript of the 3rd Secret of Fatima. I am sure what we do know now is accurate of what was released. However, I still believe parts of the secret are still being held close to the vest. I can understand parts of the secret being withheld if it contains messages about the future of the church, apostasy and chastisement.
James, thanks for the lengthy informative analysis. Let me correct some small inconsistences though:
On 26 December 1991 it was the USSR (Soviet Union) that broke apart, not the Russian Federation that was one of the 15 union republics. The Russian federation represented by its president Boris Yeltsin (then serving under the USSR president Gorbachev) was one of those who made the process of the dissolution.
From wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union
“The secession of the Baltic states was recognized in September 1991. The Belovezha Accords were signed on 8 December by President Boris Yeltsin of Russia, President Kravchuk of Ukraine, and Chairman Shushkevich of Belarus, recognizing each other’s independence and creating the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to replace the Soviet Union.
on 21 December, representatives of 11 of the 12 remaining republics – all except Georgia – signed the Alma-Ata Protocol, which confirmed the dissolution of the Union and formally established the CIS. They also “accepted” Gorbachev’s resignation. The command of the Armed Forces of the USSR was entrusted to the Minister of Defense Yevgeny Shaposhnikov.
In a nationally televised speech in the evening of 25 December, Gorbachev resigned as president of the Soviet Union. He declared the office extinct, and ceded all of its powers (such as control of the nuclear arsenal) to Yeltsin.”
The events that led to that historic dissolution of the largest country and the country with the biggest number of nuclear weapons, pass through the unsuccessful coup against Gorbachev, in which Yeltsin played the major role. This coup is wrongly underestimated in history. See the messages of Our Lady in Medjugorje during the coup.
Main participants in the coup:
Gennady Yanayev, Vice President
Valentin Pavlov, Prime Minister
Vladimir Kryuchkov, head of the KGB
Dmitry Yazov, Minister of Defence
Boris Pugo, Minister of Interior
Should it be successful, without the crowds infront of the tanks, and led by Yeltsin, now we could have a completely different history.
Here is a mock documentary by the German ZDF of what could happen in that case. Could it happen now? Only God knows.
It currently is 7am on Tuesday in Medjugorje and still no word.