1. Biden wins on election night. They have enough mail-in votes counted. It’s a Biden landslide, so the uncounted Mail-ins don’t matter, and they call it for Biden.
* Evaluation: not likely. Too many Mail-ins, and Biden may not be that far ahead.
2. Trump wins on election night. Same scenario, but for Trump.
* Even less likely, as FiveThirtyEight.com has Biden favored over Trump.
3. Either Trump or Biden wins after several days of counting Mail-ins. A clear winner, one or the other.
* Doubtful. Mail-ins could take weeks or months to count.
4. The Split Win Scenario
A Split Win within a day or a few days. Media outlets and the nation are on edge without a clear winner the next day. Media outlets call the election, conservative outlets call it for Trump, and liberal outlets call it for Biden.
* This could happen. Media outlets are a major driving force in the political polarization. They are all willing to meddle in an election to this extent, calling an election before there is a real clear winner.
** If this happens, it will be chaos in the nation. Riots are possible. If there’s an eventual clear winner after a number of weeks, the wrong media outlets might not be willing to admit they were wrong.
5. The Speaker Takes Over Scenario
No clear winner by January 20th of 2021. Trump and Pence step down. Whoever is Speaker of the House becomes President. That could be Pelosi, but maybe not. Congress takes office January 3rd of 2021. A new Speaker could be elected, especially if that person is likely to become President (and we’ll know by then the likelihood). This is a wildcard. Pelosi will not have enough support to be elected Speaker again if it means she’d be President. We could have a Speaker and shortly thereafter a President that most persons have never heard of.
* I really hope it’s not AOC.
6. The President-for-Life Scenario
Trump refuses to step down on January 20th. He claims Mail-in ballot count is incorrect. Supreme Court has to decide who is President. That decision could go either way. There’s a 6-3 conservative majority, but Justices are fiercely independent of politics, even on the far right or left.
* Unlikely, but at this point, who knows. One thing is fairly certain, if there is big controversy over the election, there could be riots.
7. The Legislating A Winner Scenario
Congress tries to pass a new law regarding the election, between January 3 and January 20th, if there’s no clear winner by then. If Democrats take the Senate and hold the House, they could steal the election in this manner. Then the Supreme Court could intervene.
* If the Democrats win both Houses, they will definitively try something. The nation is that polarized, and they hate Trump so much, they might justify any type of legislative intervention.
8. The Third-Party Rip-Off Scenario
Controversy over Mail-in ballots and recounts could put the election in the Supreme Court, with the new Congress also trying to intervene, and with extreme bias in reporting from the media outlets. Each third party tries to steal the election for the candidate that they favor.
* Highly likely. And riots.
9. The Biden Covid Scenario
Biden wins, but gets Covid between now and January 20th and he loses his mental capacity. Bear with me here. You don’t know Covid like I know Covid. I’ve been reading hundreds of research studies. This virus can be mild and then be cleared by your immune system; that can happen. But in some cases the virus gets into the brain and can cause all kinds of neurological damage and problems. With someone like Biden, who is rumored to have some type of serious organic brain disorder, Covid could put him over the edge and he would be absolutely completely mentally incompetent. The result would be Harris is President. Then the Republicans will go to Court saying she wasn’t voted in as President, and if Biden loses his mental capacity before January 20th, she can’t just step into the role of President. It goes to SCOTUS. The conservative majority might not just hand it to Trump, since he (in this scenario) was not voted as President. They might give it to Harris. They might give it to the Speaker of the House, or call for a new election, or something else. Who knows, at that point.
10. The Trump LongCovid Scenario
Trump could have a relapse of Covid-19, and then end up with severe health issues and chronic Covid, a.k.a. LongCovid. If he wins the election, Pence might have to step in and take his place under the 25th Amendment.
11. The Chaos Scenario
Covid-19 gets much worse this winter. There is still no winner by January 20th. The country erupts into rioting and civil unrest. SCOTUS refuses to give the election to either side. A new Speaker of the House becomes President, but many persons refuse to accept their legitimacy. The nation descends into chaos.
12. Trump wins big, but the Democrats take the Senate and House. They impeach him and Pence successfully, making the Speaker President.
13. An Electoral College Tie means that the House decides the election, the newly-elected House, with each State getting one Vote. This process favors Trump.
14. Things get so bad that SCOTUS and Congress declare the need for a new election, this summer. New candidates run for office on both sides, Republican and Democrat.
15. That’s all I can think of. Any other scenarios? Post in the comments below.
Question about #8:
“Controversy over Mail-in ballots and recounts could put the election in the Supreme Court, with the new Congress also trying to intervene, and with extreme bias in reporting from the media outlets.”
OK, I’m with you so far. But then…
“Each third party tries to steal the election for the candidate that they favor.”
How did the third parties enter the fray? By gaining control of media outlets?
Oops, I didn’t mean third parties in the political sense, I meant third parties as in the media, the court, congress — groups other than the two pairs of candidates.
SCOTUS is not all powerful. In 2000 it stopped recount of votes in Florida and that was enough for Gore to concede graciously. It is unlikely that to be repeated, Hilary said it directly to Biden not to concede under any circumstances.
It is more likely the election dispute to be decided in the new Congress with the tool of accepting or rejecting electoral delegations. The scenario of Speaker president is very possible. Scenario with impeachment also, especially if Trump wins but loses Congress and Senate. Also Amendment 25.
Trump is still president this November and December even if he loses. A major war or other unforeseen event, or Covid, may change the status quo in unpredictable way (should we say Great warning may happen now). I do not expect new elections (what will they be any different from these ones), rather a rule of the Speaker and polarization in the other institutions and States. Hope it stops there, as the top generals already declared they will stay away from politics.
My apologies, Ron.
I just can’t put much faith in polls anymore after 2016. Republicans, based on rallies, are overwhelmingly more enthusiastic about Trump in comparison to Biden. If you read the comment section on any news site with articles about Trump, they are again overwhelmingly supportive of him; so much so that Yahoo news has stopped allowing comments on their articles, claiming they’re trying to be more “diverse”. The House and Senate are a toss up but I have to predict Trump will very likely be reelected. The Primary Model gives Trump a 91% chance at reelection and has been correct in 25 of the past 27 elections.
I believe Trump will win by a massive landslide on election night and that the mail-ballots still being counted won’t even matter. There are spontaneous rallies across the country for Trump that you only see on social media. Also Trump rallies are like rock concerts. Biden can barely get anyone to show up at his rallies. Even Harris has hardly anyone showing up. I believe there is a silent majority that will come out of the woodworks like they did in 2016 but much more this time and vote for Trump. Also there are large prayers groups throughout the Country that are praying for President Trump. I don’t see any groups praying for Biden. Also I believe that God will favor Trump for him moving the capital of Israel to Jerusalem. Lastly, the Hermit of Loreto prophesized in the 1980’s that Donald Trump will be President of the United States and that Trump will lead America back to God.
Trump wins by landslide next week; this is followed by riots and looting; martial law is declared; washington DC gets hit the hardest by rioters. This is problematic for liberals as again they appear to be the party of violence;
It will be too cold to riot but if they want to brave the cold, President Trump will overrule the Governors and send in the National Guard to stop the violence. Also I believe the Department of Justice will begin arresting political leaders in certain cities for dereliction of duty to protect their residents from violence and/or declaring themselves sanctuary cities and not cooperating with federal officials on criminal illegal aliens.
I think it also possible that there will be a 2000-type controversy, where meddling occurs (or is at least suspected by one side) in a very close battleground state that will decide the election depending on how it votes.