My Prediction for Covid-19 Deaths in August was Spot On. Winter Will Be Much Worse

My prediction for the number of U.S. deaths from Covid-19 in August was: 30,798 deaths. The actual number turned out to be 30,961 deaths. I was off by less than one percent.

For number of monthly cases, the actual number is 1,505,907 for August. I was off just under 17%, and my prediction was too high at 1,759,899 cases for August. Does that mean my other predictions for monthly cases of Covid in the U.S. are too high? No. Covid-19 is seasonal. That means the cases and severity cycle from low in the good months (Jun, Jul, Aug, Sept) to high in the bad months (Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar). A lower number in the good months could mean a higher number in the bad months due to the cyclic nature of the disease.

Prediction for September, adjusted based on August numbers, is 1,333,803 cases and 27,423 deaths. The figures are arrived at by using the ratios from month to month from a study of human coronaviruses that cause colds, and their seasonality (Edridge 2020), to obtain the case rate, and then the death rate is based on recent months, the actual rate for Covid-19.

Please note that the predicted cases and deaths is not expected to be exact to the single digits. That is just how the numbers turned out from the calculation. I would put September cases at between 1.3 and 1.4 million cases per month. Many factors affect this number, including gov’t policy and school policies, so it could be higher with poor decisions. The case fatality rate for August in the U.S. was 2.056%. That’s total deaths for August divided by total reported cases. September will hopefully not be any higher as a percentage, so that gives us the lower death rate: same death percentage against a lower number of cases. But in the winter months, the lower levels of vitamin D will cause a higher case fatality rate against a higher case rate. And that will cause the death rate to reach hundreds of thousands of deaths per month — unless the nation decides upon a severe shut down. But many persons won’t obey such a shutdown. And the vaccines might not be effective enough.

The only solution is a nationwide Vitamin D supplementation program: adults 10,000 IU of vitamin D per day for the entire winter, or 100,000 IU of vitamin D once a week. For the elderly or persons at higher risk of death from Covid-19, double the dosage. Vitamin D studies.

Infants: 400 IU/day
Children, 1-3: 2,000 IU/day
Children, 4-8: 2,500 IU/day
Children, 9-13: 3,000 IU/day
Teens, 14-18: 4,000 IU/day
Adults, 19-59: 10,000 IU/day
Seniors, 60+: 20,000 IU/day

If the case rate increases in the winter months, as I am predicting due to the seasonality of coronaviruses, then the cases in each winter month, Dec – March, will be between 2 and 3.5 million cases, and the deaths in each of those months will be between 120,000 and 230,000. That’s U.S. deaths from Covid-19 alone in each winter month. Total winter deaths could be over 850,000 for those 4 months alone.

The Edridge study had the lowest numbers and the lowest range from low to high. Two other studies of the same type had much higher highs in the winter months. Those studies would apply in places where the winters are very cold, and they still have warm summers. So the case and death rates could be much higher in particular regions.

Note that my predictions for this winter are for a large Second Wave of cases and deaths, with an increase in both the number of cases and an increase in the percentage of deaths, the deaths will rise much more than the cases will rise. The only way to avoid this Second Wave is a massive vitamin D supplementation program.

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10 Responses to My Prediction for Covid-19 Deaths in August was Spot On. Winter Will Be Much Worse

  1. Matt says:

    What are your predictions for Covid cases and deaths during October and November?

  2. Lowen says:

    CDC mentions only 6% of all deaths directly covid related. Your science and scaremongering is wacky.

    • Ron Conte says:

      The 94% is Covid-19 deaths for which the Cause of Death mentioned, in addition to Covid-19, EITHER one or more co-morbidities OR sequelae to Covid, such as pneumonia or ARDS or sepsis or organ failure. So all 100% died of Covid-19.

  3. Michael says:

    I found it interesting that the CDC came out last week and reported that 94% of Covid-19 deaths had other comorbidities or underlying health conditions. Only 6% listed Covid as the sole cause.

    • Ron Conte says:

      The 94% also includes persons with no co-morbidities, but with other things listed as the cause of death, such as organ damage caused by Covid.

  4. Grant Needham says:

    What amount of vitamin D for children and adolescents would be recommended?

    • Ron Conte says:

      Children, 1-3: 2,000 IU/day – that’s 500 less than the tolerable upper limit (TUL)
      Children, 4-8: 2,500 IU/day – that’s 500 less than the tolerable upper limit (TUL)
      Children, 9-13: 4,000 IU/day (the TUL)
      Teens, 14-18: 4,000 IU/day (the TUL)
      Adults, 19-59: 10,000 IU/day
      Seniors, 60+: 20,000 IU/day

      You can also give Vitamin D on a once-a-week schedule:
      Children, 9-13: 30,000 IU once-a-week
      Teens, 14-18: 30,000 IU/day once-a-week
      Adults, 19-59: 100,000 IU/day once-a-week
      Seniors, 60+: 150,000 IU/day once-a-week

      The above is what I would recommend. It’s also good for kids to get out in the sunshine.
      See DRI Tables on this page
      See also: Garland, Cedric F., et al. “Vitamin D supplement doses and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D in the range associated with cancer prevention.” Anticancer research 31.2 (2011): 607-611.

  5. DAS says:

    Many brands have changed over from IUs to micrograms.

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