If researchers find an effective treatment, which also works to greatly reduce risk of infection. The number and percent of cases which are severe falls, and the death rate decreases sharply. People are no longer afraid. Society returns to normal.
If researchers find a vaccine, especially one that is in the form of a pill, and it is highly effective. The population is vaccinated. Case rate and death rates plummet. Society returns to normal.
If no vaccine arrives soon and no treatment that is far more effective than current ones — more effective than hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin — then the virus simply rips through society, a vast number die. Then the survivors are mostly immune. Society transitions to a new and sad “normal”.
The Coronavirus mutates years, like the flu, so that any vaccine will have to be redone each year. It might not even be possible to arrive at a vaccine and give it to the population before the virus has mutated again. And without an effective treatment, the virus will rip through the population, year after year, changing society severely for a long time.
Miracle. The pandemic just ends. Thank God.
Odds of Each Outcome
In order: One; Two; Both one and two; Three; Five; Four.
Ronald L. Conte Jr.