As I wrote in my tweets a few seconds ago:
Why is Iran suddenly behaving more aggressively than ever before? I think it may possibly be because they now have several working nuclear bombs. The extra firepower makes them more arrogant, and more willing to provoke powerful nations.
I expect Iran to make an announcement that they have several nuclear bombs (they might exaggerate and claim to have more than several) soon, perhaps before summer ends. Then Iran and ISIS will make a pact to work together to unite the extremists in that region. They will succeed.
And now I will add a few more comments to the above tweets:
The nuclear agreement between Iran and the West limited their production of purified uranium in degree of enrichment and in quantity. Why were they so willing to accept these restrictions? I have been saying for years now that Iran probably has a third uranium enrichment facility, in addition to the two that are known: Natanz and Fordo. Natanz was originally a secret facility, until ISIS disclosed its existence based on their analysis of commercial (and intelligence?) satellite photos. “ISIS” being “Institute for Science and International Security”.
Fordo was a secret facility until Israeli and U.S. intelligence discovered its existence. So it is clear that Iran wants a secret facility. They have the money and the means to make one. So they probably have one. We just haven’t found it.
In order to “go public” with the fact that they have completed working nuclear bombs, Iran would need to have at least 4 or 5. If they have only one or two, then the U.S. and Israel might try to destroy them with a special forces operation. If they have several, we could not be certain that we would destroy all of them, and then we would have to fear nuclear reprisal. They also need more than one or two so that, if they use one in a reprisal, they have some left to keep us from destroying them in our reprisal.
So at this point, perhaps Iran only has two or three nuclear bombs. Or perhaps there is an internal disagreement as to whether or not to disclose that they have nukes.
Would they need to test the nuclear bombs first? They have an underground testing facility ready to go. But the workings of nuclear bombs are so well understood and proven that Iran might forgo a test explosion, which would waste one very expensive and very difficult to make bomb. So I think it unlikely that the announcement would take the form of a test explosion. They will probably hold a press conference, in which Hasan Rouhani himself reveals the news.
But before that happens (within weeks or months), I expect an internal power struggle in which the Supreme Leader is killed and is replaced by Hasan Rouhani. He will then be both president of Iran and the religious Supreme Leader. And next he will make the announcement that Iran has nukes.
What happens next is that every Islamic extremist leader and group will want to ally with Iran because of this new power. Iran will make a pact with ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) to try to give control of Iraq and Syria to ISIS, and to try to unite all the Arab/Muslim nations of that region under their dual control.
Iran has spent years, treasure, and no small amount of blood working to secure the Assad regime in Syria and fighting ISIS in Iraq. Why on earth would they make any deals with people who want nothing more than to saw the heads off Shia apostates if their power suddenly expanded? Assad and the Iraqi government are already far more friendly and religiously similar to them.
ISIS and the leaders of Iran both adhere to an extremist version of Twelver eschatology.
What? No they don’t. Twelver is an exclusively Shia concept. ISIS is Sunni and considers all Shia apostates worthy of death, and have proven so by singling them out for slaughter whenever possible. Whereas Assad’s Alawite sect, for example, does believe in the Twelve Imams.
I like your theology, Ron, but frankly you really should study up on comparative religion, politics, and military strategy before attempting eschatology.
Some ISIS leaders and many of their adherents believe in al-Mahdi (the twelfth Imam, who is thought to have never died, but to be hidden) and look forward to his imminent return, in conjunction with an apocalyptic war. They believe things contrary to the official teachings of Sunni Islamic teachers. This is not so surprising, as extremist groups by definition reject mainstream ideas, even in their own religion. See Wikipedia and The Atlantic