In my previous post, I reviewed the following Cardinals as being UNLIKELY candidates for Pope:
Erdo, 72, primate of Hungary
Marx, 71, Germany
Ouellet, 80, Canada
Parolin, 70, Italy
Prevost, 69,United States
Schoenborn, 80, Austria
Tagle, 67, Philippines
Zuppi, 69, Italy
Then, so far, I have only Cardinal Sarah as papabile. This post will consider further candidates for Pope, including those listed by this CNN article
Turkson, 76, Ghana (Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson)
— Papabile, a likely contender for the next Pope. Turkson is in the right age range, not so young that he might lead for a quarter century like JP2, and not so old that he would be weakened by age. Many Cardinals would like to elect a pope from a region other than Europe, as the Church is global. Africa is a much more conservative region for Catholicism than Europe, Canada, or the U.S. Some Cardinals, even those considered liberal, might prefer a somewhat more conservative Cardinal for the next Pope, to correct some of Francis’ ambiguities and liberal disciplines.
Besungu, 65, DR Congo (Fridolin Ambongo Besungu)
— Papabile, but not one of the most likely choices. He is on the young side, and Cardinals tend to prefer an older Pope. He is relatively conservative, refusing to do same-sex blessings. But otherwise supported Pope Francis. He is a prelate from a very poor nation with many political and economic problems. I’m not sure how that might affect the voting. The Cardinals would like to choose a Pope from Africa, so he will be considered by the Cardinal-electors as a possibility.
Czerny, 78, Canada (Michael Czerny)
— like Francis, Czerny is a Jesuit. He was in charge of the controversial issue of migration for the Vatican. He would be a liberal choice, but I think the Cardinals would prefer someone who will bring the Church back towards the center or right, from the left. It also seems unlikely to me that the Cardinals would choose another Jesuit. They currently have a reputation for being very liberal.
Chow, 65, Hong Kong (Stephen Chow)
— never going to happen. China has political and economic conflicts with the Western world, and currently supports Russia in the Ukraine war. In addition, a Pope from Hong Kong would frighten the Chinese Communist Party leadership into thinking that Chinese Catholics might be led by the Pope instead of by the Party. This could very possibly lead to a large scale persecution of Chinese Catholics.
David, 66, Philippines (Pablo Virgilio Siongco David)
— He is too young to become Pope. Also, the Philippines is currently in a conflict between China and the United States over power in the Asia Pacific region. The Cardinals do not want to insert the Church into a geopolitical conflict.
Grech, 68, Malta (Mario Grech)
— He is too closely associated with the failed synodal Church effort. Also, the Cardinals will be inclined to choose a non-European Pope, as they did with Francis.
Hollerich, 66, Luxembourg (Jean-Claude Hollerich)
— Never. He is more liberal than Francis, willing to consider women’s ordination, and also he plainly stated a rejection of Church teaching on same-sex relationships. Wikipedia says: “In 2022, Hollerich said he considered the church’s teaching that homosexual relationships are sinful to be wrong: ‘I believe that the sociological-scientific foundation of this teaching is no longer correct.'[18] In response, an anonymous memo later revealed to have been authored by Cardinal George Pell referred to Hollerich as ‘explicitly heretical.'[19]”
Kikuchi, 66, Japan (Tarcisius Isao Kikuchi)
— No. Choosing a Japanese Pope would create a major conflict between the Pope and Church versus the Chinese government. Japan and China do not get along. Do the Cardinals want to start a major persecution of Catholics in China? No, they do not.
Lacroix, 67, Primate of Canada (Gerald Cyprien Lacroix)
— No. He is too closely associated with the group of Western nations that have much economic and political power. The Cardinals would prefer a Pope from a “third world” nation or region. Also, Canada has a reputation for being a liberal region in the Church, whereas the Cardinals might prefer a more conservative or at least centrist Pope.
Pizzaballa, 60, Italy (Pierbattista Pizzaballa), patriarch of Jerusalem
— No. The Cardinals would prefer a non-Italian Pope. Also, he is too young, such that he might have too long a reign as Pope. His verbal interventions in the Gaza war might make him too controversial a choice, if the Cardinals are seeking a more temperate leader, someone who is less involved in politics.
Romero, 72, Spain (Cristobal Lopez Romero)
— I doubt he would be a top candidate for Pope. He is assigned to a diocese in Morocco, so he would be a white European chosen from Africa to be Pope. That would raise some eyebrows. The Cardinals would prefer that if a Pope were chosen from Africa, he would be black, not white European (Spanish).
Spengler, 64, Brazil (Jaime Spengler)
— He is too young. Also, he would be the second Pope in a row to be chosen from South America, which is unlikely. Also, he was only made a Cardinal in December of 2024, so he is too new as a Cardinal and perhaps not so well known to the other Cardinals.
Tobin, 72, United States (Joseph Tobin)
— Tobin was “one of the prelates whose promotion was backed by McCarrick” [LifeSiteNews]. He is considered to be very liberal. Also, the Cardinals will not choose a Pope from the United States. They wish to avoid associating the Church with the geopolitical controversies of U.S. politics.
So there you have it. I think Cardinal Sarah and Cardinal Turkson are the most likely candidates to be the next Pope. But you never know what the Holy Spirit has in mind for the Church.
RLCJ
the reproach of Christ 
Ron,
I am not sure of the following reporting where Cardinal Muller openly issued an ultimatum to the cardinals where he is threatening a schism should the cardinals elect the wrong pope. How can any cardinal suggest the election of a certain pope is wrong when the Pope is the Vicar of Christ and guided by the Holy Spirit?
Whether its political or spiritual, these Progressives are openly calling for violence and/or any disregard for Tradition, Scriptures and Law. The Progressives profess there can be no dialogue with opposite point of views.
Disgraceful!!!
While I do not agree with cardinal Muller even a little (if he indeed has said that), I understand how he feels watching the decay of the Catholic Church on all levels.
The next pope whoever he is, must address the absurdity of rejecting healthy vocations as a priority problem. Currently, they wouldn’t even let you fill an application for seminarian unless you are a pretty and smarty boy, with his own car for the USA. No matter the official age barrier is 50 and the car requirement is not officially listed. Similarly, the orders would ask for your financial status and say they are too poor?!? for new candidates. I know a number of people who were rejected after years spent in studying theology just because they were too smart and considered unfit in a system that wants ponds, not pastors. Where is the difference with the secular system where you are judged by a resume of your past or by whom you know, and not by who you are, who you are called to be? The Via Crucis this year written by pope Francis spoke against the economic system that kills. It could easily be applied for the current church system that kills the spirit.
The measures of the new pope against the bureaucratic system should be nothing less than draconian, or said more polite, the measures pope Leo the great took to strengthen the Church in 5th century comparing it to a Roman legion. There are people including many bishops who should never be ordained. Such people even without any sexual misconduct should be sent in closed convents for prayer and repentance or if they refuse, to be kicked out. They are wealthy enough with church money to assure their wellbeing for the rest of their lives.
The cardinals can easily elect a suitable bureaucrat who will make them all happy from both camps. And the churches will continue their leakage of people in the West. Should we lose the flock in the original Christendom because there are newly baptized Africans and Asians lured by the temporal material aid the missions pour there without limit at the expense of the donations of elderly parishioners in that same Western Christendom? And btw these elderly parishioners will accept any pope, including ultra conservative because they are the holy remnants. The question is how to keep the rest of 99 percent wandering sheep, not the 1 percent that stays.
The Church needs more than an ultraconservative or ultraliberal candidate who will dominate or even cause schism. The Church needs someone filled with the Spirit, a visionary of the future and practical bold man who will not stop before reforms – as reportedly John Paul II seeing the vast problems of the Church said that he was not the reformer but the next pope would be… Decades passed since then and we didn’t see that pope coming, not even Francis who was blocked by the bureaucracy in his noble ideas of reforms on all levels. We can’t afford another 15 year pontificate of stabilizing the rotten status quo and not drastically reforming it. The cardinals know very well what should be done. One quality all of them have is, they are extremely intelligent people, not chosen by chance.
Card. Muller indeed said similar words. Interesting, what if the majority say if conservative candidate is elected they will go into a schism. Things don’t go well with ultimatums in 21st century when there is a clear majority for a major reform, including majority among the faithful Again, the reform should not be understood as a gay thing or remarried thing. What I saw on Easter Sunday was a Polish speaking half empty church. We are losing the flock, and fast. God doesn’t lose anyone predetermined for salvation. Yes! And that’s why God sent us pope Francis who will be beatified or directly canonized by the next pope (Peter -) Francis II. Regardless if card. Muller remains a catholic or not.
It is not easy to predict who will eventually be chosen to be chosen, but I would like the next Pope to be a faithful disciple of Jesus who accepts all the doctrines of the Church and focuses his attention sustaining our appreciation of our one and only Redeemer and of strengthening our relationship with the Lord. That, and not to make this fallen world a better place, is his duty. And, of course, to spread the good news of redemption available only in, with, and through the Church.
I believe most Cardinals realize the 1st part of the tribulation is at hand, therefore, the geopolitics will have an impact on the next elected Pope. Should the cardinals believe the Vatican along with Rome is to be destroyed and the Pope has to flee Europe and find a safe haven in the USA, it might stand to reason the next Pope will come from the USA. The logistics and a working knowledge of USA will be a great help in comforting the faithful.
Whomever the next Pope is, the Holy Spirit will guide him in keeping the church faithful to its core principles.
The Cardinals must realize that the current times are very difficult. But I doubt they realize that the tribulation is near.
Ron
you once mentioned Fr. Sudac as a pope. Has you thought process on him changed?
I still think that Fr. Sudac is the Angelic Shepherd and that he will be the Pope eventually, but not yet. He is the Pope who will be elected during an Ecumenical Council. A future Popes dies during the Council, and as the Cardinals and Bishops are all assembled anyway, they elect Sudac as Pope in response to a Divine sign.
I am at least 70% sure that the new pope will be fluent in Italian (as St. JPII, B.XVI, and Francis all were), not from the US, and not an extremist from either side, so no German synodal way liberals and no Tridentine restorationists.
Look at the live streams from the Vatican: unending flow of people who are not ordered to do so by anyone, politician or religious. Many of them travel through state borders and spend thousands for that trip to Rome motivated by their faith. They are moved by pope Francis’ vision of the future because they recognize in him the man sent by God as St Francis was sent to save the Church. They see his words applicable to their lives, helping them in every day issues. Otherwise they would simply be not here.
The next pope will be someone who will continue this way, who will have the name Francis or combination of names maybe Benedict – Francis, as St John Paul II chose the combination of names of his three predecessors. Maybe a bit different style yes, maybe more contemplative, more scholastic, but definitely on the same road. Otherwise, if he differs so much from the spirit that moved pope Francis and all these people, he will not be elected by the cardinals who themselves were appointed in this same gift of the Spirit for our last time.
Indeed the reform Stalled because of bureaucracy that should be dealt with without any further delay. Any bureaucrat who cares for his own wellbeing and savings perhaps in millions while practically have all his costs of living, housing, expensive cars covered by the parishioners’ money, has no place in the Church structures regardless if he is consecrated or a lay person. I don’t understand why upon hearing the word “reform” most traditionalists jump and think Only of the Sexual issues. Is that their biggest spiritual fault, their main inclination towards sin they fight with in their thoughts? I don’t want to sound disrespectful because I am not disrespectful and I fight my own faults that are many. But to reject all these people as deluded and wrong, not millions but the good portion of the 1.4 billion wide Church who approved pope Francis and DISAPPROVED UNFIT CLERICS, is to reject the living Church, to reject God’s will for our times, and after all to beg for a Schism. It is a real possibility that to be the outcome of the conclave with the election of Francis II.
If Francis II is called Parolin, or Tagle, or Turkson, or yet unknown name, I would accept him as the will of God for our times. Despite I want a different outcome as I outlined before.
I want to contradict myself, and I will be glad if it becomes a discussion with many and different views. If we don’t discuss it now, in these 10 days, when?
Let say cardinal Sarah gathers all 18 African votes including the vote of cardinal Turkson who is a liberal. Who else will vote for him? Cardinals Burke, Muller, Voelki, Eijk, Erdo, Makrickas, Bychok, Retes, Ranjith, let add five- six more from Asia. But not all Asian cardinals. That makes 30 + but not even 40. The other cardinals who all want the line of pope Francis to continue but in different ways, 90+ have 2/3 majority (89 votes are enough since two cardinal electors said they will not participate for health issues). They will likely split between Parolin (the status quo) and a cardinal in the Third world most likely Tagle. The repetition of 2013 when Ouellet from the status quo having majority but not 2/3 granted his votes to the third world candidate Bergoglio who had around 40. Or they can decide for a completely unexpected name outside of the papabili list once they realize none of the papabili can gather 89 required votes. Similar to how neither Scola nor Scherer gathered votes in 2013 despite being both at the top of the list.
I think a Brazilian cardinal or bishop is a likely choice, maybe not Sherer anymore. Brasil is still the biggest Catholic country, moreover there was already one Spanish speaking pope, one Polish, one German, and many Italians. If we write off the USA and Canada by extension, and I think with a great dose of certainty France and UK as very unlikely countries. That narrows the choice between several predominantly catholic countries: Ireland, Portugal, Spain (second Spanish speaker?), or any Latin American country with Brazil and Mexico at the top.
Will there be an Asian? It could, however if cardinal Tagle is not elected it is hard to see a Japanese pope or a Hong Kong pope. Notice some Asian cardinals are too young as well.
A break up of the taboo the election to be only among the cardinals will elevate the prestige of the conclave and the Church magisterium as truly embracing the reform. I think the College has that unselfishness in mind, despite the popular negative view towards hierarchy. Once it should happen. Why not Now, when it is clear the Reform Has Been STOPPED from the ranks inside who are against any reform that endangers their privileges, and not from the secular world who “tries to destroy the Church” as the popular view among the traditionalists is. When even the secular world supports the reform of renewal inside the Church as a symbol of societal norms and traditions while some church clerics oppose it out of purely egoistic motivation, it is a time to rethink where we stand. Maybe the Reform itself needs a review reform. But that is to be decided in dialogue and action.
The biggest question here is, will the cardinals who prefer a traditionalist pope ultimately let God’s will to be done? Knowing and seeing in the conclave they can’t have their candidate elected for obvious math from 4th grade or lower, will they strive for that moderate consensus figure that would be somewhere between popes Benedict and Francis? Pretty much as St John Paul II was standing originally somewhere between St John XXIII and St Paul VI, while boosting the Church into the new millennium. Or the traditionalist cardinals may voice for a Reform themselves, for the election of a non-system holy priest without “agenda” or “groups” behind, rather with holiness, after the example of St Celestine V.
As a polygot like Pope St. John Paul II, Turkson is definitely papabile, and whether he is elected or not he will wield a lot of influence during the conclave just by being multilingual. I believe he could be elected if he seems sufficiently concerned with the fate of Europe. Europe is in crisis, and its cardinals will be reluctant to vote for someone who isn’t at least as interested in Ukraine and Europe as Pope Francis was.
The return of Donald Trump in his second presidency brings the world into a chaotic an unpredictable situation. The way he handles Ukraine War and President Zelenskyy, his ideas about Greenland and Canada, and the trade tariffs he imposes against China and other countries and the impacts on American and global economies, create a somber and gloomy mood all around the world. Something big and bad things will happen. I hope It’s wrong, but that’s the feeling that sense by some many people now. And what we see now in 2025 is like what was happen in 1939, before the start of World War 2.
Given with the similar situation, no wonder that when Pope Pius XI died in February 1939, the cardinals stressed the need for someone who can anchored the church to passed the storm of the upcoming war. And they found it in Eugenio Cardinal Pacelli, who they chose as Pope Pius XII.
With the current geopolitical situation in the world today, I believe that the cardinals who will gather for the upcoming Papal Conclave, might think of someone who can lead the church with his smart, dignified, and persuasion during this unpredictable storms. Discussion about Liberals or Conservatives is not relevant, at least for now. The Church needs to stay solid and united, and become the light of hope during this turbulent time. I believe that the feasible option now is Pietro Cardinal Parolin, the Cardinal Secretary of State.
I’d turn off main stream media news as they hate Trump. The World will be fine and USA will no longer be taken advantage of. Spiritually the world has gone mad with Woke ideology such as men can get pregnant and 123 genders, as a start.
We will have a surprise, regardless of what exactly. Cardinal Romero looks very much like pope Francis physically and will be a good Francis II. There are many others too. Why not a Japanese cardinal? Why not a Brazilian? (Argentinian does not equal to Brazilian – these were great powers who shaped the Catholic new world and now are great Catholic nations, still). Or just opening the door for other worthy non cardinals and thus breaking the old taboo that is not a dogma. Whoever he is, I strongly believe the one who comes will be in the footsteps of pope Francis, will take the name Francis II (or combination of names like Peter- Francis II) and will canonize pope Francis on a fast track skipping the beatification.
If Tagle was to be elected pope, he would…well he would be less Asian and more universal. Cardinal Tagle is the only one of the shortlisted cardinals by all media that has the obvious charisma to energize the people, but an Asian charisma. And the Church is still predominantly not in Asia or Africa.
As of the respected cardinal Sarah, it is obvious he doesn’t have the necessary votes. Unless some eschatological event happens, that I prefer to keep for myself. (i.e. Great Warning etc), I don’t see any chance the cardinals who were elevated by pope Francis for making the reform happen, who participated on many Synods to shape the reform, now to change their views to back cardinal Sarah whose position is well known and not shared by the majority cardinals. Sorry if this disappoints the traditionalists who desire to see him in white.
But, the non acceptance of the majority candidate by the traditionalist minority could lead to a schism, and that is a danger that should be avoided. With the price of election of compromise candidate that obviously lack the skills of popes John Paul II, Benedict, Francis? To avoid both the schism and the compromise candidate, the cardinals may just enlarge their views outside the box. Aren’t there holy priests in Brazil, in Mexico, in Poland, Ireland, Croatia? Their names are well known to the hierarchy. Let the hierarchy go out of their own self righteousness and self-assumed preselection by God, as pope Francis would say. I understand it is hard, when they have 130 names to choose and narrow them down to few instead of increasing their number outside the red list, but…the world needs more than that cabinet approach. They would still shape much of the Church activity and advise the future pope if they elect a holy priest or even a layman visionary. These people live among us. The billion common Catholics don’t need a long resume of hierarchical pastoral activities within the System (as if appointing CEO of Wallstreet top company), a system that the eminent cardinals want to Reform. We need a pastor with heart, with spirit and flame.
What about Cardinal Arinze? I know he was someone you mentioned in the past.
Cardinal Arinze is too old now, at age 92. I think a different African prelate may become pope instead.