per the Institute for Science and International Security:
[quoted from X.com @theGoodISIS post of August 29th]
With new IAEA JCPOA verification report, we have new breakout estimates. Iran can produce more weapon-grade uranium (WGU) since the IAEA’s last report in May 2024 due to increased stocks of 20 and 60 percent enriched uranium and a greatly enlarged advanced centrifuge capacity 1/
Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium and its nearly total centrifuge capacity combined are sufficient to make enough WGU, taken as 25 kilograms (kg) of WGU, for 9 nuclear weapons in one month, 12 in two months, 13 in three months, 14 in four months, and 15 in five months. 2/
Iran could produce its first quantity of 25 kg of WGU in about one week, using part of its stock of 60% and the four advanced centrifuge cascades that made 60%. This initial breakout could be hard for the IAEA to detect, if inspectors’ access, was delayed due to an “emergency” 3/
The Fordow enrichment plant now poses a significant breakout risk by itself, with 10 IR-6 cascades installed. With good practice and planning, Fordow could first be operated with all 10 cascades enriching 60% to 90% and then using all ten to enrich 20% to 90%. 4/
Fordow continued: The result is that under such a well planned breakout scenario, Fordow alone could produce enough WGU for 4 nuclear weapons in slightly less than two weeks and enough for a total of 6 in month. Iran has certainly made more real the danger of breakout. 5/5
Iran can make enough Weapon-Grade Uranium (90+% purity of U-235) for 12 nuclear weapons with only 2 months’ worth of further uranium purification. They can do this using their stocks of 60% and 20% purity uranium gas (UF6). After that, they must use lower grade uranium gas to make enough WGU for one nuke each month, totaling 15 nukes’ worth of WGU in 5 months.
IF Iran instead only uses the gas centrifuges at their well-protected Fordow enrichment facility (260 feet underground in the remote desert), they can make enough WGU for 6 nukes on the first month.
As @theGoodISIS has previously discussed, Iran needs about 6 months to make a working nuclear bomb out of WGU. But 4 months’ worth of that work can be done, and may already have been done, in advance of obtaining the WGU. So in three months, Iran could possibly make as many as 6 nuclear weapons.
Note Well that the Institute for Science and International Security and also the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have each repeatedly warned that Iran may have a clandestine uranium enrichment facility, which could make WGU in secret. This presents the possibility that Iran might suddenly announce, test, or use a nuclear weapon, without other nations’ advance knowledge.
Ronald L Conte Jr
the reproach of Christ 
I used to concur with you Ron, that Iran would attack covertly in NYC areas near manhattan, and they are definitely gearing up to do something. But in light of the past years events, I think their primary target is indeed now Israel, and we know what the Israeli response would be to a nuclear strike on their soil. It would be horrific, with a massive toll, and very very bad globally
The western civilization knows Iran will use nuclear warfare regardless if Iran is attacked. The time is at hand for an assault on Iran.
Should Iran reveal it has nuclear weapons, by any method, I have a hard time seeing that not resulting in immediate Israeli military action.
Any military attack, subsequent to Iran obtaining 5 or more working nuclear bombs would risk a nuclear counter attack. The most likely attack vector would be a nuke hidden on a civilian ship, sailing into a port.