Today, Sunday, June 30th, Biden is meeting with his family members at Camp David, to discuss the post-debate situation. News commentary suggests that Biden will decide whether or not to continue running in the presidential election. This article is my speculation on what might happen IF Biden decides to step aside from the campaign. There are several important considerations affecting who is most likely to replace him.

Can Newsom step in?

Any new candidate for president would need the support of Biden. There is too short a period of time to run a full campaign. So the first question is: Can Newsom obtain the full support of Biden? If you are running at the top of the ticket, in place of Biden, but do not have his full support, then every current Biden supporter has to make a decision whether or not to vote for you. If Biden supports the new candidate, and presents him or her as Biden’s chosen successor, you more easily obtain the votes of Biden supporters.

Now I’m not saying that Biden supporters will switch to Trump, if they don’t like Biden’s replacement. But they will be much less likely to vote at all, and some small percentage will switch to vote for RFK Jr. The election is presently very close between Biden and Trump, so a replacement can’t afford to take on any disadvantage. Therefore, Newsom can only run if he has the full support of Biden.

Can Newsom run with Harris as his VP? Probably not: “The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves….” [20th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution]

This Amendment is generally applied, in practice, to prevent the Presidential and Veep candidates on a ticket from being from the same State. Now, that’s not what it literally says, but at the very least, since Harris and Newsom are both from California, Electors from that State would not be able to vote for both of them. Then, as a practical matter, it just would not be a prudent decision, to attempt to have both candidates be from the same State, as the interpretation of that Amendment would overshadow the election, and your VP running mate might lose California’s electoral votes.

So, as a practical matter, Newsom can’t run with Harris as his VP. That means a “Newsom/not-Harris” ticket LOSES all the campaign money raised by Biden/Harris. Campaign finance law prevents money raised by a ticket from being used by other persons. At least one person from the ticket that raised the money must be on the new ticket. So if Biden resigns, Harris has to be on the ticket. This makes it more likely that Newsom will not run at all. He loses too much campaign money, if Harris is not his VP. But Harris might not be willing to be VP on any new ticket. She may have aspirations to become the next President in less than a year, rather than after 4 or 8 more years as a Vice President.

But, in any case, Newsom would have only a few months to run. He probably lacks the name recognition outside of California and outside of politically active circles. Most voters may have heard his name and little else, so they don’t have any reason to vote for him. A few months is not enough time for Newsom to run successfully.

Then Biden would be much more convincing as a promotor of Kamala Harris as his replacement on the ticket, since she is his VP. Biden has little to no association with Newsom, and so can’t help him as much on a new ticket.

Is running the best move for Newsom? If he has designs on the presidency, he might want to run as Biden’s replacement, so as to build support and notoriety for a later (more likely to be successful) run. If Trump wins, then Trump can’t run for a third term, and Republicans might not have anyone with the support and notoriety to beat Newsom four years from now.

But Democratic leaders would need to support a Newsom run this time around, and it is not likely that they will do so. They will understand the above considerations, which make it unlikely that Newsom will win. They do not want to merely set up a future run for Newsom.

So I think Newsom will not replace Biden on the Ticket.

Can Harris take over for Biden?

If Biden resigns, he essentially can pick his replacement. No one can win without his full support. Then the other issue is that Harris has control over $200+ million dollars in campaign funds, that CANNOT be used, if neither Biden, nor Harris are on the new ticket. Harris can threaten to walk, if she doesn’t like the suggested replacement for Biden, taking the money with her. More over, she could, with Biden’s support, insist on taking the top place on the ticket.

Her pitch is that she has been campaigning with Biden, so you have continuity. Then Biden can easily present her as a natural replacement, as she is VP and is VP running mate. They have worked together for over 3 years, so she inherits his popularity with Dems. And she also can point out that, if she walks, the money goes with her.

So her position would be that she gets the top of the ticket, or she walks away, and the new ticket loses over $200 million in campaign money. A completely new ticket would lose the continuity with the Biden/Harris ticket. And she may have enough support from Biden to take the top of the ticket. No one else can say that they will likely beat Trump. Harris might not be popular, but Harris with a decent VP running mate and Biden’s support would be the most likely chance for the Dems to win in November. If Biden considers her a good replacement, she can take the top place on the ticket.

Will Biden resign from the Presidency?

IF Biden resigns from the Democratic ticket, will he also resign as sitting U.S. President? At first glance, this seems very unlikely. But there are reasons why a resignation from the Presidency might help a Harris-led ticket.

Harris has little record on which to run. She inherits all the good or bad decisions Biden made. She doesn’t have the time to try to distinguish herself from him, and needs his full support over the next few months. She is politically in a weak position to run for President.

But if Biden resigns from both the race and the Presidency, Harris then runs as the sitting U.S. President. She can use the little time left to make changes from Biden’s policies, creating a record supporting her run to be reelected. She could change Biden’s policies regarding Israel, Ukraine, immigration, and more. This would be done by executive orders and new policies. The advantage is that she would have a better platform from which to run: as the President, with some different policies actually implemented, and with a new VP running mate.

Is Biden willing to resign the Presidency? This is unclear. But the same arguments that work for him resigning from the campaign, also work for him to resign from the Presidency. If he is not competent enough to run for president, how can he continue to serve as President? And anyone running in his place, runs in his shadow as the President who is widely said to be incompetent.

And if she wins, she can possibly serve 2 full 4 year terms, in addition to the partial term from Biden’s resignation. “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.” [22nd Amendment] If Harris takes over as U.S. President, she would be serving less than 2 years of Biden’s term, and so would be eligible for two full terms in addition.

Will Trump still be running in November?

On July 11th, Trump will be sentenced for his 34 felony convictions for falsifying business records. That charge is a misdemeanor, but the prosecutor escalated the charges to felonies on the claim that the falsification was to influence the election. Trump could conceivably win on appeal, and have the sentence nullified, or at least reduced to misdemeanors. But the court is in New York, a very liberal and anti-Trump State. If the judge who is sentencing Trump wanted to help out the new Democratic ticket, he could give Trump jail time. It is not really justified, as the charges are usually misdemeanors, and Trump has a good chance of at least having the charges reduced to misdemeanor convictions. But it is plausible and within the judges powers.

If sentenced to jail, Trump should be permitted to stay out of prison, while awaiting appeal. But a biased judge could require him to report to prison, claiming that his appeal is unlikely to be successful. This would be a very controversial decision. Now, I don’t know anything about the judge who will sentence Trump, so I’m not saying that the particular judge is biased or unjust. I’m merely commenting on the possibilities and their possible outcome.

A Trump in prison would obviously have a significant disadvantage in running for President. But prison is also difficult for someone as old as Trump, so it’s even possible he could pass away in prison. Otherwise, an imprisoned Trump might begin to rant more than usual and issue more extreme positions on issues, thereby discrediting himself in the election.

Will Ohio put Biden/Harris or a new Dem ticket on the ballot?

Ohio has an August 7th deadline for both parties to certify their candidates. The Republican convention is in July, so that’s not a problem. But the Democratic convention is later in August, so they will not make the deadline. They could have a virtual roll call to officially nominate the Democratic Ticket prior to August 7th. Or Ohio could make some type of exception, as they have done in the past. The problem is that the legislature of Ohio will not change the law, and the current Secretary of State in Ohio will not make an exception.

If the new Dem ticket is not certified before August 7th, the Democrats will be very unlikely to win Ohio. They could try to get a federal court order. But failing that, a write-in campaign in Ohio would be a joke. And Ohio has enough electoral college votes to tip a close election to the Republicans.

My predictions

These are merely my fallible speculations:
* Biden will resign from the campaign to be the next President
* Harris will take the top place on the ticket
* Biden will also resign from the U.S. Presidency
* Harris then takes Biden’s place as the sitting U.S. President
* Harris will lose the election, and the Republican ticket will win and take office.

I don’t know who the VP running mate would be for Harris.

by
Ronald L Conte Jr