How Many Victims of the October 7th Terror Attack on Israel?

In Israel, at the Shura military base, bodies are taken for identification and eventual burial. A civilian team there from the organization known as “Zaka” handles this task.

The Times of Israel reported on Wednesday, 8 Nov. 2023:

Police say 843 civilian victims from massacres identified

“Israeli authorities have identified the remains of 843 civilians killed in the October 7 attacks on southern Israel, police say, with work ongoing to identify victims.

“In late October, police said 826 victims had been identified, with an estimated 150 victims remaining in 400 body bags at the Shura Camp, where a massive effort to identify the dead has been ongoing for a month. Some of the remains at the camp are thought to belong to attackers.

“Officials estimate around 1,000 civilians were killed in the Hamas massacres, along with around 400 members of security forces.

“According to Channel 12 news Tuesday, 25 people remain unaccounted for — neither confirmed dead nor kidnapped — including 15 foreigners, thought to be mainly Thai farmhands.”

The above report is from November 8th. Six days later, there was a report on Nov. 14th, updating the numbers:

The Times of Israel reported on Tuesday, 14 Nov. 2023:

Police say they’ve identified 859 civilian victims from October 7 massacre, up 16
“Israeli authorities have identified the remains of 859 civilians killed in the October 7 attacks on southern Israel, police say, with work still ongoing. The number is 16 more than the last announcement on November 8, six days ago.

“Israel said Friday it had revised the death toll of the October 7 Hamas attack on Israeli communities and military bases in southern Israel down from around 1,400 to roughly 1,200 people.

“Israel has said some 1,500 terrorists are believed to have been killed by security forces, leaving authorities with thousands of corpses to process.

“The death toll is likely to continue to fluctuate for some time. Some of the over 240 people abducted to the Strip are thought to not be alive, though there are no official estimates. Additionally, as time has passed, there has been a steady trickle of reports on individuals who had been thought kidnapped but who have since been confirmed, through forensic and other evidence, to have been killed.

The figure of 826 identified victims, plus an estimated 150 more in body bags gives a total estimate of 976.

The number of hostages is believed to be 238, as of November 23rd, the day before the hostage release agreement. [Times of Israel article] “If the agreement goes as planned, groups of 12-13 Israelis will be released each day throughout a four-day truce in the war between Israel and Hamas.” What does Hamas receive in this deal? “The deal involves the exchange of 50 Israeli women and children for 150 Palestinian women and teenage security prisoners in Israeli jails.”

How many military and police were killed on October 7th? Here are the figures, updated as of 22 Nov. 2023:

“The Israel Defense Forces has published the names of 392 soldiers, officers, and reservists — many of whom are local security officers — killed during the ongoing war with Palestinian terrorists since October 7, mostly on the border with the Gaza Strip, and at least 70 during a ground offensive in the Hamas-run territory. Meanwhile, the Israel Police has listed 57 officers who were killed confronting the terrorists on the Gaza border….” [Times of Israel]

Keeping the 70 killed in the Gaza Strip invasion separate, gives us 322 military and 57 police, not counting two officers killed, one in Jerusalem and one in the West Bank. The total of military and police killed in the Oct. 7th attack is 379 persons.

Totals
859 identified civilian victims of the terrorist attack
57 police victims
322 military victims
117 estimate of bodies not yet identified (see below)

The estimate of 150 more bodies yet to be identified was given earlier, in October, when only 826 civilian victims had yet been identified. That is 33 victims fewer than the latest figure of 859. Subtracting 33 from 150 gives us a rough estimate of 117 more bodies yet to be identified.

Identified victims of Oct. 7th attack: 1238 persons
Total current estimate of victims: 1355 persons

The estimate of the number of Hamas attackers killed in the Oct. 7th attack is 1500 persons.

The number of hostages who will survive to be released, and the number killed among the hostages, has no current estimate. So the estimate of 1355 persons may rise closer to 1400.

Why was the official estimate of deaths on Oct. 7th revised down from 1400 to 1200? The reason seems to be that they changed from an estimated total of 1400 to a figure based on identified victims, which is closer to 1200. But as they identify more bodies over the coming weeks, it seems clear that the total will rise above 1300.

UPDATE: “Authorities have identified a total of 274 soldiers and 859 non-soldiers killed during the brutal assault. The latter figure includes 57 Israel Police officers and 38 local security officers. It is unclear which of these individuals were on duty when killed. Removing those victims leaves a figure of 764 civilians.” [TimesOfIsrael.com]

Note that there are still many bodies left to be identified, and to be added to the above totals.

Ronald L Conte Jr

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