UPDATE

As widely reported, Hamas and later Hezbollah have attacked Israel, in the worst violence in the region since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Israel as declared that they are at war. This new war began on 7 October 2023, on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. The death toll has exceeded 1100 (as of early 9 Oct). Fighting continues and the death toll is expected to rise.

Some reports have claimed that Iran knew of the planned attack and may have helped in the planning. Iran is known to command Hezbollah, but mainly offers funding to Hamas, which is relatively independent of Iran. However, in planning such a large attack, Hamas could conceivably have sought Iran’s help. The timing, 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, would seem to be most important to the Palestinians, and of less note to Iran. Hezbollah only entered the fighting a day later, and with limited resources. So this seems to be an Hamas initiative, with Iranian approval and help. But it is possible that Iran suggested the war. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Iran helped plan the attack over several weeks.

The reaction to the war has been somewhat surprising, with some persons in the U.S. and many persons in Muslim nations supporting Hamas. This was an unprovoked attack, which killed many civilians. The Palestinians took hostages, and have killed some of them. This reaction underscores the point I made in the original article below that many Muslims would take the side of Iran, and want to ally with Iran, if Iran announces they have nuclear weapons. Then the use of a nuclear weapon against the U.S. would likely see the same reaction of support for Iran (and even rejoicing) by those who hate Israel and/or hate the U.S. and other Western nations.

As stated below, Iran is very close to obtaining nuclear weapons. Also, Iran restricted the access of some of the most experienced IAEA inspectors to its nuclear facilities beginning about September 16th. This could possibly indicate a nuclear breakout has begun (a rush to make WGU for nukes). The attack on Israel might be the start of a larger war which Iran has long planned with the West. Such a war, as explained below, might use conventional weapons against Israel, but a nuclear weapon against the U.S. The war between Hamas and Israel might also be a type of distraction, while Iran completes its nuclear program.

Original Article

“In what appears to be preparations for a scenario that involves a clash with Iran, the US and Israel held major drills earlier this week that involved tackling a large missile barrage.” [EurAsian Times, 24 Sept. 2023.]

“Iran can produce fissile material for nuclear bomb in 2 weeks – US says” [The Jerusalem Post, 1 Oct 2023]

“Iran retains the ability … to break out and produce enough weapon-grade enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in 12 days…. This breakout could be difficult for the IAEA to detect promptly, if Iran delayed inspectors’ access…. In summary, Iran could produce enough WGU for six nuclear weapons in one month, eight in two months, nine in three months, and ten in four months. ” [Institute for Science and International Security (@ThegoodISIS) 8 Sept 2023]

Note that Iran recently barred a list of IAEA inspectors from the nation, disrupting and delaying a competent and thorough inspection of nuclear facilities. This could signal a breakout is imminent.

From my previous post:
November 22, 2020: “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled overnight by a civilian jet to Saudi Arabia reportedly for a secret meeting with the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which would mark the first known encounter between senior Israeli and Saudi officials.” [] At the meeting also were Israeli spy chief and head of Mossad, Yossi Cohen, and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The meeting reportedly discussed the threat from Iran and lasted only two hours.

In the months since that meeting, very aggressive attacks were made against Iran: late June 2021, air attacks on an Iranian centrifuge plant; early June 2021, Fires Sink Iran’s Largest Warship and Ravage Big Refinery; May 2021, Iran Nuclear-Fuel Production Plummets After Natanz Explosion; Dec 2020, Iranian nuclear scientist killed by machine gun attack while in a vehicle; etc.

This meeting between the PM of Israel, the head of Israel’s secret service (Mossad), the U.S. Secretary of State, and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia — on Saudi soil (!!!!) — was unprecedented. The Saudis denied the Israelis were present. What could the reason have been? I suppose that Mossad was briefing the U.S. and the Saudis on Iran’s nuclear program. And Iran must have been very close to obtaining working nukes, back then in Nov. 2020, for MBS to have allowed not only the head of state of Israel, but also their head of Mossad, on Saudi soil.

And here we are, years later, with the U.S. now stating that Iran could make enough WGU for one nuclear weapon in less than two weeks (i.e. 12 days).

“The Defense Department report, titled 2023 Strategy for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction, identified the Islamic Republic as a “persistent threat” and warned that it could build a nuclear weapon in two weeks.” [Jerusalem Post, Ibid.]

That quote is not accurate, since Iran would need 12 days to make enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, but would need more time to convert that highly-enriched uranium gas into metal, into a hollow sphere, and complete the remaining components for a weapon. ISIS estimates 4 months for Iran (1) to make enough WGU for 10 nukes AND (2) a total of 6 months to make some of that WGU into working bombs.

“Iran continues to keep the majority (83 percent) of its stock of 60 percent HEU and nearly 85 percent of its stock of 20 percent enriched uranium at the Esfahan Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant (FPFP), where Iran maintains a capability to make enriched uranium metal. Iran’s storage of so much proliferation-sensitive material at the FPFP, which may not be as thoroughly monitored as Natanz and Fordow, requires enhanced IAEA safeguards to detect and prevent diversion to a secret enrichment plant. For example, there should be stepped up inspector presence and remote camera surveillance.” [ISIS, ibid.]

But there has not been “stepped up inspector presence and remote camera surveillance”. So Iran has a certain capacity to perform nuclear program tasks without IAEA knowledge.

Finally, ISIS has repeatedly, for many years, warned of the possibility of an as-yet-undetected Iranian uranium enrichment facility. As time goes on, this possibility of a covert facility becomes more difficult to detect, as recent advanced centrifuge cascades require far less floor space in order to enrich uranium gas to a WGU level.

Iran could possible complete some number of working nuclear bombs in secret and in a short length of time.

How Many Nuclear Bombs Does Iran Need for an Attack?

If a nation wishes to make a nuclear attack, one nuclear bomb is not sufficient. If Iran attacks with only one nuke, the response would be devastating, even if only conventional weapons are used. The leaders would be killed, and its military capability would be reduced to almost nothing. Then its ability to make more nukes would be destroyed. You can’t attack with only one nuke.

With two nukes, Iran could use one to attack, and then hold the other nuke in abeyance, threatening to use the second nuke, if there is a counterattack. But a counterattack could bomb that second nuke on the ground, destroying it. Then the counterattack would continue and devastate Iran.

With three nukes, the same problem arises for Iran, that a counterattack might identify and destroy the locations of the two nukes that remain after a nuclear attack using one nuke.

With four nukes, the possibility arises that a counterattack might fail to destroy all 3 remaining nukes. But an attempt would be made to do so, and if one nuke remains, the counterattack will seek to destroy the means to deploy that remaining nuke (missile sites, airports, ports).

With 5 or 6 nuclear weapons, the odds of a counterattack destroying the 4 or 5 remaining nukes, after a nuclear attack by Iran, become unacceptable. Iran could place 1 or 2 nukes on civilian ships, in a shell game, transferring the weapons from ship to ship at sea (as is done with oil in order to evade sanctions). With 5 or 6 nukes, Iran can use 1 or 2 nukes, and have 5 or 4 remaining nukes in different locations, including out of nation, thereby forestalling a devastating counterattack to a nuclear attack by Iran.

Presently, Iran can make enough WGU for 6 nukes in 30 days. That is probably part of the reason why Israel and the U.S. held nuclear defense drills a few days ago. Russia is also planning a nuclear drill with a nuclear war between NATO and Russia as the premise for the exercise. The use of nuclear weapons by Iran could escalate the conflict between NATO and Russia to an all-out nuclear war.

Will Iran use Nukes soon? That is entirely possible.

First, see my previous post: Radical Shia Eschatology, Iran’s View of the End Times. Here is an excerpt from that post:

Jewish author Joel C. Rosenberg writes the following:
“Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are convinced that the End of Days has come. They believe the Shia messiah known as the ‘Twelfth Imam’ or the ‘Mahdi’ will appear soon to establish a global Islamic kingdom known as the caliphate. What’s more, they believe the way to hasten the coming of the Twelfth Imam is to annihilate Israel (which they call the ‘Little Satan’), and the United States (which they call the ‘Great Satan’).” [Joel C. Rosenberg, ‘Why Iran’s Top Leaders Believe That the End of Days Has Come‘, 7 Nov. 2011]

Ayatollah Ibrahim Amini wrote a book citing a Muslim tradition of eschatology in which the Muslims kill all who refuse to convert to Islam:
“On seeing the fulfillment of many of the signs promised in the traditions, a large number of unbelievers will turn towards Islam. Those who persist in their disbelief and wickedness shall be killed by the soldiers of the Mahdi. The only victorious government in the entire world will be that of Islam and people will devotedly endeavor to protect it. Islam will be the religion of everyone, and will enter all the nations of the world.”
[…]
“The Mahdi will offer the religion of Islam to the Jews and the Christians; if they accept it they will be spared, otherwise they will be killed.” [Ibrahim Amini, Al-Imam al-Mahdi, chapter 14]

The leaders of Iran adhere to this radical Shia eschatology. They are Twelver extremists. Twelvers believe that a series of 12 prominent Muslim clerics, Imams, succeeded Muhammed, one after another through the centuries, and that the 12th Imam, al Mahdi, never died, but has been hidden in the world for over a thousand years.

“Shortly before the Day of Judgment, when commanded by God, al-Mahdi will return to lead the forces of righteousness against the forces of evil in an apocalyptic war that would ultimately establish peace and justice on earth, according to the Twelvers.” Wikipedia on al-Mahdi. Note that Wikipedia is in general not a particularly good source on any religion. But the above article should suffice.

The leaders of Iran seem to believe that Iran has a special role to play in this apocalyptic war, specifically, to unite Muslims and initiate the war. Their belief that God is on their side means that they will not decline to go to war based on a rational evaluation of military resources on both sides and the likelihood of success. But the possession of nuclear weapons would certainly be used by them in such a war. For they intend that eventually every person on earth will either convert to their version of Islam, or be killed. Convert or die. As for the moderate peaceful practicing Muslims, who are usually a majority of Muslims in Western nations, they are largely considered to be apostates, as they do not adhere to the strict version of Islam practiced in Muslim nations. Then Christians, Jews, and believers of other religions are considered to be infidels, i.e. unbelievers.

Bejamin Netanyahu has repeatedly publicly called the rulers of Iran a “Messianic apocalyptic cult”. He has warned that Iran is led by rulers who think and act based on a radical Shia eschatology that is dangerous to Israel, the U.S. and the world.

In unusually blunt language, Netanyahu said of the Iranian leadership, “You don’t want a messianic apocalyptic cult controlling atomic bombs. When the wide-eyed believer gets hold of the reins of power and the weapons of mass death, then the entire world should start worrying, and that is what is happening in Iran.” [The Atlantic, March 2009 ]

“But deterrence may not work with the Iranians once they get nuclear weapons. There’s a great scholar of the Middle East, Prof. Bernard Lewis, who put it best. He said that for the Ayatollahs of Iran, mutually assured destruction is not a deterrent, it’s an inducement. Iran’s apocalyptic leaders believe that a medieval holy man [al-Mahdi] will reappear in the wake of a devastating Holy War, thereby ensuring that their brand of radical Islam will rule the earth. That’s not just what they believe. That’s what is actually guiding their policies and their actions.” [Benjamin Netanyahu, Speech to the United Nations General Assembly, 2012, PDF of full text]

In 2011, the Yale Globalist interviewed former Iranian Revolutionary Guard officer, turned CIA double agent, “Reza Kahlili”, who is the author of the book “A Time To Betray”.

Q: Do you think Iran is trying to get a nuclear weapon?

A: Absolutely. I have no doubt that a nuclear device is their end-goal and, unfortunately, I think they’ll be able to get it because we haven’t taken enough actions to stop them.

Q: Some people will argue that even if Iran gets a nuclear weapon it will never use it. Do you think that’s true?

A: Absolutely not. The Iranian leaders who are ruling the country right now are truly messianic, and they believe that it is mandated that they destroy Israel to bring about the End of Times and the return of the last Imam. It is essential for the West to realize this. Nukes in the hands of the radicals in Iran would at the very least destabilize the world, affect the economy by raising the price of oil, and expand terrorist activities [by removing terrorists’ fear] about a reaction from the U.S. Once they have a nuke, they can take the world hostage. I think that mutually assured destruction does not apply to the Iranian regime and that they will seek to destroy Israel and create the circumstances necessary to fulfill the centuries-old Hadith that states that once chaos takes over the world and one-third of the world population dies, Imam Mahdi will return.

Q: Do you believe that the Iranian Regime cares for its self-preservation?

A: No, their mentality does not allow them to. This may seem crazy to many, but they have a different lens through which they see the world. They see martyrdom as the highest calling. Mutually assured destruction wouldn’t give them pause. At best, even if they did care about their own preservation, then the nuclear bomb would give them much more freedom to support terrorism around the world.
[Full interview here]

The point Reza Kahlili makes about expanding terrorism is important. Once Iran gets nukes, they might not use them immediately. They will want to build a coalition of nations led by extremist Muslims to join forces with them in the planned apocalyptic war. So they might follow a particular game plan, which I put forward as a hypothetical threat scenario.

* Iran breaks out to make enough WGU for 5 or 6 implosion-type nuclear bombs.

* Iran announces that they possess multiple nuclear weapons and threatens to use them, if Iran is attacked by Israel, the U.S., or any other nation. This buys Iran time to prepare for war and build more nukes.

* The reaction of the Muslim world to such an announcement is predictable. Those Muslims who dislike or actively hate the Western world — for their misuse of military and economic power, for their modern cultural elements that contradict Islamic sensibilities — will rejoice that a nation among them has reached a new level of power. (I recall that on September 11th, at the 9-11 attacks in NYC, some Muslim nations saw their populations rejoicing in the streets.)

* Muslim extremists will wish to ally with Iran, to share in this power. And though Iran is run by Twelver Shia Muslims, there are many Twelver extremists also among the Sunnis. The Islamic State (ISIL) is run by Twelver Sunnis. A nuclear Iran could unite radical Muslims from both major sects, Shia and Sunni. And not only extremists, but many other Muslims could choose to support a nuclear Iran. There is a general opposition to the West found within the general population in some Muslim nations.

* When Iran announces that they have nuclear weapons, the result could be an upheaval in many Muslim nations of the Middle East and northern Africa, seeking to overthrow their moderate Western-friendly governments. Iran could make an alliance with these nations.

* In Iraq, the people might try to overthrow the U.S.-supported Iraqi government. Iran would be quick to support such efforts. And the U.S. cannot fight another war in Iraq, while supporting Ukraine and worrying about Taiwan. We would likely pull out of Iraq, as we did Afghanistan.

* As the months pass, Iran could ramp up production of more WGU and more working nuclear weapons. As quoted earlier in this post, Iran could make enough WGU for 10 nukes in 4 months. Several more months would be needed to turn the WGU into 10 working nukes. In 6 to 12 months, Iran could have enough nuclear weapons to prevent their forceable disarmament.

Will Iran nuke Israel, the United States, or other Targets?

As previously quoted: “In what appears to be preparations for a scenario that involves a clash with Iran, the US and Israel held major drills earlier this week that involved tackling a large missile barrage.” — EurAsian Times, 24 Sept. 2023.

These drills involved the use of the best Air Defense Systems in both nations, including the Patriot missile system, which repeatedly shot down Russian hypervelocity missiles over Ukraine. If Iran tried to attack Israel with nuclear missiles, every missile might be shot down, resulting in a loss of nearly all of Iran’s nuclear capability. They may have kept some nukes in abeyance, but this would not prevent Israel from a devastating counterattack, since Israel has the capability to shoot down missiles from Iran with high degree of accuracy and success. So they would not be deterred by the threat of a nuclear counter attack.

Also, if Iran were to attack Israel with a nuclear weapon successfully, Israel is so small that one nuke would effectively render most of the nation unlivable. Therefore, Israel would be willing to launch a devastating, possibly nuclear, counterattack on Iran in response. And Israel is believed to have a few hundred nuclear armed missiles capable of reaching Iran. One nuclear strike on Israel would mean the destruction of Iran.

As Reza Kahlili said, a strategy of MAD (mutually assured destruction) might not carry much weight for the extremists who run Iran. But the knowledge that Israel has hundreds of nuclear missiles and the will to use them, as compared to only several nukes possessed by Iran, would likely cause Iran to choose a less risky target. The other issue is that radioactive fallout from Israel would reach multiple Muslim nations, which Iran would want to join them in war. So, as much as Iranian leaders and other extremists hate Israel, their preferred strategy would be to strike the U.S. with a nuclear weapon, and then attack Israel with conventional weapons in the subsequent war. They might hope to conquer and destroy Israel with conventional weapons, but not the U.S.

Now the U.S. has nuclear missiles, and could utterly destroy Iran. The problem is that a nuclear attack on Iran would likely cause fallout in nations allied with the U.S., whom the U.S. needs on our side in a war between Iran and their allies. Moreover, a nuclear counterattack on Iran by the U.S. presents a very real and extreme danger of nuclear war with Russia. The Russian forces have an estimated 1500 nuclear warheads, as well as hypervelocity missiles that can reach all Western nations. Then western military support for Ukraine and harsh sanctions have led Russia to already consider that they are in a proxy war with the U.S. and with NATO as a whole. Iran is allied with Russia against Ukraine. So the U.S. cannot nuke Iran without possibly putting Russia over the edge to attack Ukraine or NATO with nukes.

So of the two nations hated most by Iran — “the little Satan”, Israel, and “the great Satan”, the United States — Iran might prefer to attack the U.S. Such an attack might cause the U.S. to withdraw support for Israel, leaving them vulnerable to a conventional attack.

Within the United States, New York City is the most likely target. Attacking Washington D.C. represents too much risk of a nuclear response from the U.S., despite the aforementioned considerations. But NYC is the home of the largest number of Jews outside of Israel. NYC is an economic capital of the Western nations. NYC is the location of the headquarters of the United Nations. The U.N. created the State of Israel after World War 2, and also subsequently issued restrictions on Iran, which continue to this day.

Moreover, New York City is vulnerable to an attack by sea. Iran could place a nuclear bomb on a civilian ship, transfer the weapon to a different ship at sea, in a type of shell game, making the bomb difficult to track. Then the civilian ship could sail into New York harbor, right next to the United Nations building, and be exploded by the ship’s crew manually.

Such an attack would cause a second wave of Muslims to rush to Iran’s side, wishing to join Iran in their war against the West. We must not underestimate the anger, resentment, hatred, and opposition to the U.S. and other Western nations in the Arab/Muslim world. Extremists could overthrow the governments of some of these Muslim nations, and could raise an army of millions against the U.S. and Europe.

Russia and China

The Allies in World War 2 could not have won the war without the Soviet Union and China joining the Alliance against Germany and Japan (and other Axis nations). But if a World War 3 breaks out between the U.S. and Europe versus Iran, Iraq, and other Arab/Muslim nations, Russia and China will take their side, not ours. Western support for Ukraine against Russia as well as Western sanctions against Russia, and U.S. Foreign Direct Product Rule restrictions against China have placed Russia and China in opposition to the U.S. and Europe.

Just as the NATO nations have extensively aided Ukraine in the war with Russia, it is likely that Russia and probably also China, will aid Iran, Iraq, and other Muslim nations in a major war with the West. I don’t think Russian or Chinese troops will enter the war directly. Instead, I think that Russia and China will use the same playbook as the Allies of Ukraine: provide intel, training, weapons, munitions, funds and whatever else is needed, while claiming to be “not a party” to the war.

It might seem unlikely that the Arab/Muslim nations of the Middle East and northern Africa could win extensive territory in Europe against NATO. But with the help of Russia, which is currently producing arms and munitions on a war footing, and with the help of China, which has extensive manufacturing and semiconductor resources, an Arab/Muslim Alliance led by Iran could rival NATO.

In addition, NATO has expended a vast amount of munitions as well as tanks, artillery and other weapons systems in the Ukraine war. NATO, including the U.S., is not on a war footing for the production of more weapons and munitions. Russia can manufacture more missiles and artillery rounds per year than all of NATO put together. If Russia supports Iran in a war, the West will not be certain of winning. It is the Ukraine war situation, reversed.

Also, Western nations largely depend upon China, Taiwan, and other Asian nations for semiconductor resources essential to economics, infrastructure, and the resources needed for a large-scale multi-year war. All electronic systems used in warfare require semiconductors: tanks, APC, planes, subs, ships, trucks, jeeps, drones, missiles, communications and surveillance equipment, etc. China could take control of Taiwan, threaten Japan and South Korea, and thus place the Western nations in a stranglehold, cutting off semiconductor production for military and other purposes.

The Arab/Muslim nations of the Middle East and northern Africa have a large population of unemployed or underemployed young adult men, who are willing and able to go to war. All they need is food, rifles, and ammunition. Russia and China could conceivably provide millions of rifles and plenty of ammunition.

By comparison, it is difficult for Europe and the U.S. to raise troops. Our young men do not want to go to war, do not like guns, are against violence, are often overweight or at least out of shape. Our young women are often entirely unwilling and unable to go to war. Many young men who try to enter the U.S. military are turned away, as they are considered unfit. Our young adults are dependent on cellphones, video games, internet access, social media, and a self-indulgent lifestyle. They would not do well if sent to war in a draft. Then the internet and social media would be used to oppose a draft to a degree never before seen. Violent protests could break out against a draft. Those opposed to war and to a draft would support one another online. Refusal to comply would be widespread.

It is a very real possibility that a nuclear Iran could rally the Arab/Muslim nations of the Middle East and northern Africa and begin a war against the West, with the help of all the nations that view the Western nations as opponents: Cuba, Venezuela, Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, North Korea, Russia, China, and any nations in the Middle East which are overthrown by extremists. Pakistan has nuclear weapons, and might take Iran’s side. Russia and China might help Iran with its missile technology.

Russia could threaten to use their nuclear missiles, if the West uses nuclear weapons against Iran and its allies. A nuclear attack on the U.S. might provoke such a threat from Russia, making a nuclear counterattack on Iran too risky.

A nuclear Iran could initiate World War 3, and we are ill-prepared to fight such a war.

I have previously posted extensively on Iran’s nuclear program; search my blog for those posts.

Ronald L Conte Jr