Opinions on the Timing of the Warning

The Warning

For many years now, I have been saying that the Warning of Garabandal would occur on Good Friday. The reason is that this event, also called the Illumination of Conscience, shows everyone the sins still on their conscience, and offers them the gift of sorrow and repentance from sin. There is no more fitting time for repentance from sin than the day commemorating the one Sacrifice that calls everyone to repentance and offers forgiveness from sin: the day when Christ was Crucified.

Moreover, the Scripture passage referring to the Warning alludes to the Crucifixion:

{12:10} And I will pour out upon the house of David and upon the inhabitants of Jerusalem, the spirit of grace and of prayers. And they will look upon me, whom they have pierced, and they will mourn for him as one mourns for an only son, and they will feel sorrow over him, as one would be sorrowful at the death of a firstborn.
{12:11} In that day, there will be a great lamentation in Jerusalem, like the lamentation of Hadadrimmon in the plain of Megiddo.

The faithful who repent from their sins will have sorrow, not only because of their own offenses against God, but also because Christ had to suffer greatly for their sins. And that is why it is said: “they will look upon me [Christ], whom they have pierced,” that is, pierced by their sinfulness.

A number of people are writing to me or opining somewhere online that they expect the Warning to occur on some other day, or in some other year. I disagree. The Warning can only occur on Good Friday, since Sacred Scripture references that day by saying “whom they have pierced”, just as Christ was pierced on the Cross, and by saying “sorrowful at the death of a firstborn”, just as Christ, the firstborn of all creation, suffered death on the Cross.

Though I have been wrong before about the year of the Warning, there are no other years in the near future that would fit all of the related prophecies on the Warning and all the related subsequent sequences of events. So 2016 is the year.


Some say that the Pope must go to Moscow before the Warning, to fulfill an alleged prophecy. But this is based on a claim that Conchita, in a private conversation, said that the Pope would go to Moscow before a set of severe sufferings began — essentially before the tribulation, not before the Warning. And no one is claiming (as far as I know) that the Blessed Virgin Mary gave her this prophecy; it seems to be a reported claim from a private conversation with Conchita. Maybe the claim has been misreported. Maybe Conchita was expressing an incorrect conclusion that she drew. So this is not an event that must occur before the Warning can occur. Perhaps the Pope will go to Moscow before the tribulation begins — perhaps — but there is no reason to think that he must do so prior to the Warning.


Another claim is that the Warning cannot occur until “things are at their worst”, and communism has spread, and it is difficult for priests to say Mass. My interpretation is that things are already at their worst from a spiritual point of view. The Blessed Virgin Mary does not speak from an earthly point of view, but a heavenly one. So the expression “things are at their worst” does not mean war, famine, disease, etc. Instead, it refers to spiritual and moral errors.

Consider the state of sinful secular society today. Abortion, abortifacient contraception, and contraception are very widely practiced and are legal and socially accepted. Gay marriage is widely approved. The culture is now pushing a further disorder: transgenderism. The Catholic Christian point of view on these topics is treated with contempt and utter malice. Laws are being passed to force these disorders on anyone who might disagree.

Consider the state of the Church today. Most Catholics do not believe and practice the true Catholic faith. They use contraception or abortifacient contraception; they commit sexual sins without repentance; they do not believe what the Church teaches on many points of faith and morals. Many Catholics rarely attend Mass, and most Mass-going Communion-receiving Catholics rarely, if ever, go to Confession.

Things are already at their worst, spiritually. When the Warning occurs, many persons will repent, especially faithful Christians, and that will make the spiritual situation suddenly better — somewhat better.

The visionaries of Garabandal were told that communism would become widespread. Again, Mary speaks from a heavenly point of view. So she was not referring to political communism, but to spiritual communism. See my posts on this topic:
Spiritual Communism and the great Warning
Spiritual Communism and the Schism

Spiritual communism is already widespread within society and the Church, and it will become worse as the tribulation unfolds. For the Warning only shows people the sins on their consciences, not sins committed with a sincere by uninformed and mistaken conscience. And some who repent will quickly backslide into their old sins.

The visionaries of Garabandal, when speaking of spiritual communism, described both the time leading up to the Warning and the time following the Warning, during the tribulation:

Mari Loli: “It would look like the communists have taken over the whole world and it would be very hard to practice the religion, for priests to say Mass or for the people to open the doors of the churches.”

But this saying is not entirely fulfilled before the Warning; it applies much more so during the tribulation that follows soon after the Warning, Consolation, and Miracle.

Currently, there is a priest shortage, and the few priests who remain are overworked. There is pressure from sinful secular society for priests to reject Church teaching, and accept various grave sins as if they were good. Some priests have already fallen away by favoring gay marriage or contraception or some other sin.

Then there is the division between liberals and conservatives in the Church, which will soon lead to a schism. And the schism will cause first many conservatives, and later many liberals, including priests, to fall away from the one true Church. This will greatly reduce the number of faithful priests, and cause disputes about which parishes and which dioceses are still faithful (i.e. are not in schism). So it will become very difficult for faithful priests to say Mass.

Then, as the tribulation unfolds, and the Muslim extremists begin to conquer Europe, they will forbid all public and private Christian worship, close churches, burn churches, and imprison or kill priests. The extremists will occupy Europe for many years, and Christianity will be outlawed. Eventually, the extremists will attempt to force Christians to convert to extremist Islam. Yes, at the height of the tribulation, it will be very difficult for priests to say Mass or even open the doors of a church.

But most of these difficulties occur during the tribulation. It is a common error when interpreting the messages of Garabandal to assume that the troubles described all precede the Warning.

The Consolation

This event is my understanding of the second secret of Medjugorje. The Warning is the first secret, and the Consolation, two days later on Easter Sunday, is the second secret. The Consolation only offers the grace of consolation to persons who repented from their sins on the day of the Warning. Not everyone repents, therefore not everyone receives this gift of consolation.

There is no better day for consolation from sorrow for sin than Easter Sunday, when Jesus rose from the dead, thereby conquering both death and sin.

The Miracle of Healing

The third secret of Medjugorje is the same as the Miracle of Garabandal:
(a) worldwide miraculous healings of millions of persons
(b) conversion of many unbelievers and fallen away believers
(c) permanent miraculous signs at many places of true apparitions

Some persons are claiming that Conchita has revealed the month of the Miracle as April. But this claim in NOT based on any direct or public assertion by her. Rather, it is a conclusion drawn from various reports about the range of months for the Miracle that she supposedly gave on different occasions. Basically, April is the only month that was in all of the stated ranges of dates. But that is a very poor way to do eschatology. Reports about private conversations, especially as they are relayed from person to person, are often unreliable. And since we have no public statement from Conchita (who is still alive and well) that the month is April, and no private revelation stating that the Blessed Virgin Mary revealed the month as April, we should ignore this claim.

Conchita has said: “It will happen between the months of February and July and it will be between the 7th and the 17th, but I will not tell you which year.” Given that the Warning and Consolation are in late March, this leaves us with April and May and June as possible months for the Miracle of Healing.

This event coincides with the feast day of a young martyr of the Eucharist: Blessed Imelda Lambertini. She is a favorite of Pope Francis. She is patroness of first Communion. She died on May 12th, in 1333. Therefore, the Miracle of Healing occurs on 12 May 2016. (Notice that the 12th of the month is exactly “between the 7th and the 17th”.)

Other Saints who have been proposed as martyrs of the Eucharist do not have a feast day in the proper range of months, or are not “young martyrs”, or are not really martyrs of the Eucharist.

Now some say that Imelda is not a martyr of the Eucharist because she was not murdered, she simply died after receiving first Communion. But do you not know that the Blessed Virgin Mary is Queen of Martyrs? She suffered with Christ at the foot of the Cross, without dying at that time. Many years later, she is said to have died out of love for God, immediately after having received holy Communion [per Blessed Anne Catherine Emmerich in Life of the Blessed Virgin Mary]. So the martyrdom of Blessed Imelda is much like the death of the Blessed Virgin Mary, Queen of Martyrs. Therefore, Imelda is a young martyr of the Eucharist.

Also, the date of May 12th is the eve for the feast of the Blessed Virgin Mary, as our Lady of Fatima. So the young martyr Blessed Imelda has her feast day just before a feast day for Mary, who is Queen of Martyrs. And both martyrs died immediately after receiving holy Communion.

But if you still disagree, wait and see. Not many days are left before the Illumination of Consciences. Prepare your souls.

Ronald L. Conte Jr.
Roman Catholic theologian and translator of the Catholic Public Domain Version of the Bible.

Please take a look at this list of my books and booklets, and see if any topic interests you.

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21 Responses to Opinions on the Timing of the Warning

  1. Justino Zuluaga says:

    VATICAN CITY (CNS) — Pope Francis is scheduled to have more than two hours alone with Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill of Moscow in Cuba in addition to signing a declaration with the patriarch before flying on to Mexico for a Feb. 12-17 visit.

    In regards to the Pope going to Moscow, I just pasted the above headline from the Catholic News Service. Please check out the site for more details.

  2. What about this?

    On a day in September of 1963, some French people were invited to eat dinner with Conchita in a house near the girl’s home. She was devouring pastries with the healthy appetite of girls of her age. Someone jokingly asked her about the sacrifices and penance mentioned in the message. Conchita accepted the joke in good humor and laughed. But suddenly she became quiet and seemed to concentrate; her face lit up; and with her hands joined on her chest, she began to speak:

    «The Miracle will be on the feastday of a young martyr of the Eucharist, a boy who carried Communion to persecuted Christians. His companions, on seeing him pass by, wanted to force him to stay and take part in their games. Infuriated by his resistance, they ended up hurling stones at him until he was left almost dead. Later a Christian soldier came, who recognized him and carried him in his arms.

    One of those present exclaimed: Oh, that’s St. Tarcisius!»

    Conchita, without saying a word, as if she hadn’t heard, turned back to her pastries.

    I THINK THE MIRACLE WILL BE ON APRIL 15, 2021 BUT MAYBE I AM WRONG! Conchita said that the event will be on a DAY, not month, of a feast of a martyr of the Eucharist


    • Ron Conte says:

      St. Tarcisius and Blessed Imelda both died as martyrs of the Eucharist and both at about the same age. He is patron of First Communicants, and she is patroness of First Communicants. His feast day coincides with the Assumption (August 15th) every year, and her feast day coincides with the Ascension (a moveable feast) in some years. Notice the strong connection between these two martyrs. Conchita was shown his martyrdom as a way of pointing toward her martyrdom.

  3. Nicholas says:


    I hope for you and for all it happens as you say. I’ve seriously questioned your wisdom over the past few years, and personally I don’t think it will happen on this date, but I have no other date. If it does I will be grateful. If not whatever happens, you have undoubtedly left a great influence on my life, and I will never forget some of your teachings which I undeniably needed at the time I ran into you. And you’ve helped me in other ways too.

    Good luck. Peace be with you.

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