The Cardinals know that they cannot elect a Cardinal or Bishop from the United States to be the next Pope. Even if they wanted to do so — which they don’t — they cannot. They don’t want to do so, because the U.S. is a wealthy nation, with much political and military power throughout the world. The Cardinals would prefer a Pope from the developing world, for a few reasons.

The Church has very many members in the developing world. Only about 25% of the U.S. population is Catholic. But in South America, for example, the vast majority of the people are Catholic. The United States is primarily a Protestant nation. As for its Catholic population, most are not devout practicing Catholics. The Catholic Faith is not as strong in the U.S. as it is in some other nations.

Since the Church is worldwide, it would be fitting to have a Pope from outside of Europe. In past centuries, it was expedient for the Pope to be Italian. The seat of the Church is at Rome, the Pope is the Bishop of Rome, and the members of the Curia were (and still are) largely Italian. For a long time, most Popes were Italian, almost by necessity. But in modern times, with the current ease of travel and communication, the Church has been able to have non-Italian (but still European) Popes. The long and successful reign of Pope John Paul II proved that the Pope does not need to be Italian. And so the Cardinals next chose a German Cardinal to be Pope: Cardinal Ratzinger as Pope Benedict XVI. But just as the Pope no longer needs to be Italian, he also does not need to be European.

So the Cardinals now would like to elect a non-European Pope. The Church is universal, and so they would like a Pope from outside of Europe. The Italian Cardinals who are said to be papabile by the secular press and by Catholic commentators, are unlikely to be elected. Italians are not currently papabile. As for European Cardinals, it is possible that the conclave might choose a non-Italian but still European Pope, just as they did in the past two conclaves. But it is more likely that they will choose a non-European. So European Cardinals are less likely to be elected Pope than non-Europeans.

Another reason that the Cardinals would like to choose a non-European Pope is that, in recent decades, the number of Cardinals from outside of Europe has increased. So there are more candidates to choose from, more papabile Cardinals, who are non-European.

So why not choose an American Cardinal to be Pope? There are a few reasons of moderate weight, plus one very grave reason.

From a political point of view, the American Bishops and Cardinals are conservative. They are more conservative than most conservative secular politicians. But from a religious point of view, compared to the whole Church on earth, the U.S. Bishops are not as conservative as in some other regions. They are somewhat liberal in many ways, comparatively speaking. For example, the U.S. Bishops have their own translation of the Bible, which uses inclusive language and is somewhat loosely translated. The more conservative Bishops, as well as the last two Popes, reject inclusive language and prefer a more literal translation. On the subject of homosexuality, conservative Bishops would reject any candidate for the priesthood who has a homosexual orientation, just as the Vatican norms require. But many U.S. Bishops do not follow that norm. On the subject of contraception, U.S. Bishops seem to be conservative, since they fought against the HHS Mandate. Yet they do not excommunicate Catholic politicians who support the mandate, nor even those who support abortion.

The U.S. Bishops are further to the left than many of the Cardinal-electors, who were all chosen by either Pope John Paul II or Pope Benedict XVI. The Church is more conservative in South American and in Africa, than She is in Canada and the U.S. The conservative Cardinal electors would find U.S. candidates, such as Cardinal Dolan, to be too liberal.

Another reason that the U.S. Bishops and Cardinals are not papabile is that the U.S. is a wealthy developed nation. The Church is universal, and yet every Pope in modern times has been from a developed nation. The Church is solicitous for the salvation of the souls of all persons, regardless of wealth or poverty. Yet She recognizes that the poor often have more obstacles and more sufferings in their lives, and so She gives more attention to their needs. The greater the need, the greater the service. Thus, it would be fitting for the conclave to choose a Pope from a developing nation, rather than from a wealthy nation, like the U.S.

Grave Reason

In addition to all of the above considerations, there is one very grave reason why the Cardinal-electors absolutely will not choose a Cardinal or Bishop from the U.S. to be the next Pope.

If the next Pope were from the United States, the Catholic Church worldwide would be viewed by many non-Christians as if it were closely associated with the United States. Catholic churches, priests, and religious would be considered to be an extension of U.S. foreign policy. In certain nations, where Christians are a minority and the United States is viewed with distrust and suspicion, the Church would be viewed with that same distrust and suspicion. And whenever the population of such a nation became enraged at some action by the U.S. government, Catholic churches would be the target of violent protests and attacks. Anger and hatred toward the U.S. would be expressed by violence against Catholic priests and religious. The faithful in such places would not be able to go to Mass without risk of death from persons whose anger was triggered by some political decision by the United States.

The Cardinals cannot choose an American to be the next Pope. For in all likelihood, such a choice — within hours of the announcement of the new Pope — would result in an attack on churches, church-goers, priests and religious, in many nations. Subsequently, Catholic churches would be seen as on-going targets for the expression of distrust, anger, and hatred of the U.S. and its foreign policy. The situation would be particularly bad in nations where the population is largely Muslim, and where tensions between that nation and the U.S. are high. Then, too, if a war should ever break out, in which the U.S. was involved, the other side in the war and its allies would target Catholic churches and Catholic leaders within their own nations.

The Cardinal-electors cannot choose an American to be Pope because too many Catholic churches would be burned to the ground and too many priests, religious, and devout laypersons would be killed.

by
Ronald L. Conte Jr.
Roman Catholic theologian and
translator of the Catholic Public Domain Version of the Bible.