Some Cardinals are considered “liberal” and others are considered “conservative”. However, the term liberal, when applied to a Roman Catholic Cardinal is a far cry from the use of the term in secular politics. A “liberal” Cardinal is still against abortion, against contraception, against same-sex marriage, etc.

Even so, it is true that there is a diversity of views on open questions among the Cardinals. Some Cardinals are somewhat more liberal; they tend to emphasize a pastoral approach to running the Church, and they prefer to focus on social justice issues. Other Cardinals are more conservative; they tend to emphasize doctrine and a strict adherence to disciplines, such as the form of the Mass.

How will these two factions vote? My opinion is that the liberal Cardinals would like to see a Pope from South America or Africa. And a black Pope from Africa is a particularly attractive idea, esp. since the U.S. has its first black President. The do not want to continue the previous tradition (broken in the last two conclaves) of electing Italian Popes. They want to show that the Church is truly worldwide and universal by electing a non-European Pope.

The conservative Cardinals would like a conservative Pope. Some were not so happy with the reign of Pope Benedict 16. He was a very conservative Cardinal, and as the head of the CDF he focused most of his attention on doctrine. But when he became Pope he chose to take a pastoral approach, rather than a doctrinal approach to shepherding the Church. Under his reign, there were no significant new doctrinal definitions, and no significant doctrinal encyclicals.

Pope Benedict’s election was analogous to the choice by the U.S. President of an apparently conservative Judge to be on the U.S. Supreme Court. But once on the court, the Justice votes differently than expected.

The conservative Cardinals do not want to make that mistake again, so they will choose a more solidly conservative Pope. Where are most of the conservative papabile Cardinals located? — in South America and Africa. The Church in Europe and in the U.S. and Canada is somewhat more liberal, comparatively, than in other areas of the world.

As for the age of the next Pope, the Cardinals like to exercise their right to vote in a conclave more than once every quarter century. The long reign of John Paul II (26 years) left an impression on many Cardinals that it is better to vote for an older candidate, so that his reign will be shorter.

And although secular society things of John Paul II as a conservative Pope, in some ways he was more liberal than the most conservative Popes would have liked. So the reigns of the last two Popes have left their mark on the Cardinals, and will affect their voting.

My belief is that Cardinal Arinze, a black Cardinal from Africa, will be elected Pope. He is pleasing to the liberal Cardinals, since he is from the developing world and would be the first black Pope in modern times. (There were three African Popes in past centuries, but it is not known whether any of those three were black.)

Cardinal Arinze has experience in the Vatican Curia, as the former head of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Sacraments. He is also very solidly conservative, more so than John Paul II or Benedict 16. He is just over 80 years old, so he will attract the votes of Cardinals who do not want a Pope with a long reign.

More on this topic in my previous posts: Arinze — papabile.

by
Ronald L. Conte Jr.
Roman Catholic theologian and
translator of the Catholic Public Domain Version of the Bible.