As I’ve already explained in a previous post, Iran cannot use nuclear weapons to attack Israel:
1. Israel has had nuclear weapons for many years. They have had sufficient time to develop sophisticated bombs, more than a few of them, and to design missiles that can carry those weapons. In all likelihood, Israel has nuclear missiles.
2. Israel is a small nation, surrounded by its enemies. If even one nuclear bomb were used to attack Israel, the nation would be devastated. Its ability to defend itself from a subsequent conventional attack would be severely impaired. The nation would be on the brink of destruction.
3. So if Iran were to attack Israel with a nuclear bomb, Israel would have nothing to lose by responding with nuclear missiles. And Israel likely has enough nuclear missiles to completely destroy Iran.
4. If Iran were to nuke Israel, the nuclear fallout would spread to a number of the surrounding Arab/Muslim nations. The populace would blame Iran, reducing Iran’s influence in that region. This result would be contrary to Iran’s aspiration to become the dominant power of the region.
5. Therefore, Iran cannot attack Israel with nuclear weapons.
If the Iranian regime understands the above considerations, then what would be their most likely target? Iran is not obtaining nuclear weapons merely to hold on to them. They have spent billions of dollars and endured harsh sanctions for many years to develop and build nuclear bombs. Their end game is not to merely wave the weapons around and boast. More on this point here.
Iran will nuke New York City. Here’s why:
1. Iran is unable to attack Israel with a nuclear bomb, in the present circumstances.
2. The United States has the largest population of Jews in the world, outside of Israel. Of the entire world population of Jews, 42.5% live in Israel, and almost as many, 39.3%, live in the U.S. Every other nation in the world has less than 5% of the world population of Jews.
3. Within the United States, the city with the largest Jewish population is certainly New York City, with approximately 15% of the world Jewish population. An attack on New York City is a type of vicarious attack on Israel.
4. NYC is also hated by Iranian leaders because it is home to the United Nations. The U.N. has repeatedly issued resolutions and sanctions against Iran.
5. The U.N. Security Council has no Islamic nations as permanent members (with veto power). The U.N. represents the type of cooperation between nations, regardless of religion, that is despised by fundamentalist Muslims. The Christian nations of Europe and North America have much influence within the U.N.
6. But more importantly, from the Arab/Muslim point of view, it was the United Nations that gave a portion of Palestine to the Jews as a homeland after World War 2. Israel exists because the U.N. established the State of Israel. An attack on the United Nations is an attack on Israel.
7. Although there are a strong fundamentalist religious motivations for the war that Iran intends against the West, there are also some non-religious motivations. New York City is one of the best known and most populous cities in the West. NYC is a center of Western commerce and travel. The dominance of the world economy by western non-Muslim nations is a source of conflict between the West and the Arab/Muslim world.
8. Iran wishes to be one of the dominant nations in the world, both politically and economically. The leaders of Iran think themselves to have a certain greatness, which the West refuses to acknowledge. When radical fundamentalists commit terrorist acts, they shout “God is great”. But what they really mean is: “I am great. I am doing something great.” And the same is true for the radical leaders of Iran. There exists a certain type of fervor for self-aggrandizement, which masquerades as religious fervor.
Therefore, at its first opportunity, Iran will attack New York City with a nuclear bomb. Their purpose is to strike at Israel vicariously, by striking at Jews in NYC, and to strike at the United Nations, which made Israel a nation, and to attempt a rise to world power by attacking a great city.
I am firmly convinced that New York City will be struck by a nuclear bomb, sent by Iran, sometime in the year 2012, probably by late spring or early summer.
The most likely delivery vehicle for Iran to use would be a non-military ship (one not traveling directly from Iran). The most likely point of attack within New York City is right beside the U.N. Headquarters.