My current thinking on the timing of the tribulation and its initial events:

The tribulation begins perhaps as early as 2013.

The first event of the tribulation is World War 3, a war of the Arab/Muslim nations of the Middle East and northern Africa versus the U.S., Europe, and our allies. The war begins once Iran obtains nuclear weapons. Iran will strike New York City with a nuclear bomb, then the war begins.

The first four events of the tribulation (the four horsemen) are: war, civil unrest, famine, death from a variety of causes and the fear of death.

The great apostasy unfolds over 3.5 years (beginning perhaps as early as summer 2013). The great apostasy begins when Pope Francis issues a papal encyclical that calls the faithful back to believe and practice the Catholic Faith in all its fullness. The encyclical includes the use of Papal Infallibility and corrects many common errors popular among members of the Church. Most Catholics reject this call to faith, and respond by leaving the Church.

In the 2010’s:
* World War 3 rages across Europe, and then winds down, resulting in the occupation of Europe by the extremists.
* Civil unrest occurs throughout the world, due to fear at the war and the use of nuclear bombs, and due to economic problems caused by the war.
* Higher food prices, rationing, disruptions in food production and distribution, and outright famine occur as a result of the war and the economic problems. The famine is worst in Europe, but is also substantial in the U.S. and other developed nations.
* Death from a variety of causes and the fear of death; fear of death will have a severe effect on society worldwide.

Good Friday, 2016: The Warning of Garabandal, which is also the first secret of Medjugorje
Easter Sunday, 2016: The Consolation, which is the second secret of Medjugorje
Thursday evening, May 12th, 2016 (vigil of the feast of our Lady of Fatima) : The Miracle of Garabandal, which is also the third secret of Medjugorje

About the year 2016, the Pope will decide that women may be validly ordained as deacons in the Church (but not as priests or bishops).

Prior to 2016: the Church will decide against the apparitions and messages of Medjugorje and Garabandal, and those apparitions will lose most of their supporters. This is the falling away predicted at Garabandal; it coincides with that great falling away from the Church called the great apostasy.

Late 2010’s: the first four events of the tribulation decrease over a few years and then end (war, civil unrest, famine, death). The Muslim extremists win World War 3 and will occupy Europe for many years.

Late 2010’s: the Protestant and Orthodox Churches repent and begin a process of conversion toward full belief in the teachings of the Catholic Faith.

Early 2020’s: Unification — the Protestant and Orthodox Churches unite with the Catholic Church: One Faith, One Lord, One Baptism. The one holy Catholic Church is restructured to have seven parts: 5 for the formerly-Protestant Churches, 1 for the Latin Rite, and 1 for the Eastern Churches. The more conservative Catholics will be very upset.

2022: a new valid and true Pope is elected who is not a Roman Catholic; he is one of the converts from Protestantism.

2020’s: the Christians and Jews in the occupied territories (Europe and other areas) are oppressed and persecuted.

mid-2028 to late 2032: a great Ecumenical Council is held, to decide many disputed issues of faith and morals. The Council will issue more new definitions of doctrine than any previous Council. The Council will decide in favor of Unification.

2028 or 2029 to mid-2030’s: the Islamic extremists who control the occupied territories are fearful at the unification of all Christians in one Catholic Church. They are alarmed at the start of an Ecumenical Council representing all Christians. They have been unable to suppress Christianity effectively in the occupied territories. So they begin a severe policy: convert to Islam or die. Millions of Christians will be martyred, rather than give up their Faith. This event is a great Christian holocaust; it is the fifth Seal of the Seven Seals in the Book of Revelation. It lasts until World War 4 begins.

2033 or 2034 to 2037: World War 4, which is a full-scale nuclear war between the Islamic extremists and the U.S. with its allies. The U.S. will win the war, but at great cost. The deaths from the war will be in the hundreds of millions. The war begins with a first strike by the U.S. against the extremists, but it is a result of a new goal by the extremists: to demand that the whole world convert to Islam or be destroyed with nuclear missiles. This war is the sixth Seal:

[Revelation]
{6:12} And when he had opened the sixth seal, I saw, and behold, a great earthquake occurred. And the sun became black, like a haircloth sack, and the entire moon became like blood.
{6:13} And the stars from heaven fell upon the earth, just as when a fig tree, shaken by a great wind, drops its immature figs.
{6:14} And heaven receded, like a scroll being rolled up. And every mountain, and the islands, were moved from their places.
{6:15} And the kings of the earth, and the rulers, and the military leaders, and the wealthy, and the strong, and everyone, servant and free, hid themselves in caves and among the rocks of the mountains.
{6:16} And they said to the mountains and the rocks: “Fall over us and hide us from the face of the One sitting upon the throne, and from the wrath of the Lamb.
{6:17} For the great day of their wrath has arrived. And who will be able to stand?”

2037: The Seal of the Living God is distributed by holy angels to many of the faithful throughout the world.

2038 to 2040: the events of the first six Trumpets of the Seventh Seal unfold (see Rev 8)

1 — pieces of a broken comet fall to earth; fire rains down from the sky on about a third of the world’s land causing immense devastation and very many deaths.

2 — one large piece of the same comet falls into an ocean, causing massive tidal waves throughout the world, devastating every coastline and causing very many deaths.

3 — radioactive fallout from World War 4 causes many water sources to be contaminated and resulting in very many deaths.

4 — nuclear winter

5 — a supernatural affliction figuratively like locusts torments all who lack the Seal of the Living God (except when they devoutly pray the Rosary). It begins on Monday, 8 November 2038 and ends on Saturday, 9 April 2039.

6 — Three Days of Darkness will begin, in the year 2040 A.D., on Holy Thursday, March 29th, and will continue throughout all of Good Friday, March 30th, and Holy Saturday, March 31st, and will end in the night, between March 31 and April 1st, before dawn.

The Three Days of Darkness kills one third of humanity throughout the world. Another third will have been killed by the other events of the tribulation, reducing the world population by several billion persons.

After the Three Days of Darkness, the world will experience a time of peace, holiness, and rebuilding lasting about 25 years.

The events from 2013 to 2040 are the first part of the tribulation.

The second part of the tribulation unfolds in the early 25th century. Those events are even more severe.

by
Ronald L. Conte Jr.
Roman Catholic theologian and
translator of the Catholic Public Domain Version of the Bible.