I know I’ve lost some credibility on this topic, since my previous predictions on the year of the start of the tribulation were in error. However, my work in this field of eschatology is speculative; it is not dogma or doctrine. And as time passes, and various political and religious events unfold, it is becoming more and more clear that the tribulation is very near.

Some indications that the tribulation begins in 2013:

Iran is expected to be able to make, or to actually make, one or more nuclear bombs this year. Today, by my calculations, Iran passed a nuclear breakout threshold, having accumulated enough near-20% enriched uranium gas (180 kg) for a 1.7 month nuclear breakout. By the end of January it becomes 1.4 months. By early April, Iran will probably be able to break out in less than one month.

The leaders of Iran adhere to radical Shia eschatology. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has referred to the leaders of Iran as “an apocalyptic cult”. They believe that it is their duty to start a war against the West in order to usher in the Muslim version of the end times.

If Israel or the U.S. bomb Iran, in order to prevent them from attaining nuclear weapons, the likely result would be an outpouring of anger from other Muslim nations in that region, and a sudden power boost for Iran. Such an attack might catalyze the unification of those nations, under Iran and under extremist leaders in each nation, setting the stage for the next world war. In my interpretation, World War 3 is the first horsemen/first seal described in the Apocalypse of John (the Book of Revelation).

Another event that I expect to occur early in the tribulation is the great apostasy. It is a common opinion in Catholic eschatology that a great apostasy accompanies the end times. The stage is set for that event, since, by almost any account, most Catholics do not believe what the Church teaches as required belief on multiple important matters of faith and morals. False teachers abound within the Church, and many are widely accepted among the members of the Church.

As I interpret the current situation in the Church, Pope Benedict XVI has the role of bridging the preparatory years, just before the tribulation, with the initial events of the tribulation. So I expect that Pope Benedict will die soon after the tribulation begins. The next Pope, in my speculative eschatology, is Cardinal Arinze, who will take the name Pope Pius XIII. He will require Catholics to believe what the Catholic Church teaches, and as a result, many will leave the Church in the great apostasy. When does this occur? If the situation with Iran and the Middle East results in War in 2013, then I expect a new Pope before the end of the calendar year, even before the end of the Year of Faith.

Economic problems are another commonly-understood feature of the tribulation. And there are indications that severe economic problems will unfold in 2013. The U.S. national debt ceiling has been reached, and, unless Congress acts, the U.S. could go into default. That would devastate the U.S. economy and adversely affect the world economy. In addition, if war with Iran begins in 2013, especially if the war is initiated by means of a nuclear bomb explosion in the U.S., the effect on the economy will be exceedingly severe.

Severe civil unrest is the second horseman/second seal of the tribulation, in my interpretation. Economic problems, the gun control debate, a possible nuclear explosion in the U.S. (New York City is the most likely target), and the start of a World War could all lead to civil unrest.

The drought that began in late 2010/early 2011, intensified in summer of 2012, and continues to engulf most of the nation. If the drought continues into spring and summer of 2013, the effect on the food supply, coupled with the war, economic problems, and civil unrest would bring about the third horseman/third seal, which is a famine in wealthy nations.

And all this could begin, and in my opinion will begin, in 2013.

by
Ronald L. Conte Jr.
Roman Catholic theologian and
translator of the Catholic Public Domain Version of the Bible.